While Anthony Edwards reached new levels on offense this season, leveling up as a mid-range and clutch scorer, his defense has taken a step back. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Wolves were 5.7 points per 100 possessions better on defense with Edwards off the floor. Ant's biggest problem on defense has been his lackluster off-ball engagement.
All season long, it's been clear that the Minnesota Timberwolves are banking on Ant to flip the switch on defense come playoff time, and this will be essential against the Denver Nuggets.
Frankly, the Wolves will have no chance against the Nuggets if they don't play elite defense. In the past two seasons, the Nuggets lost to the league's two best defenses in seven games. As such, it's clear that stifling defense is the only counter to stopping this high-powered offense, and the Wolves will need Ant to play great defense to reach this level.
Ordinarily, I wouldn't be overly concerned with this, as Edwards has proven to be a great defender, especially on the ball in the biggest moments. However, his knee injury in tandem with his heavy offensive load gives me some level of trepidation that he can reach this level.
Anthony Edwards' defense is a clear swing factor for the Timberwolves
I fully expect Jaden McDaniels to take on the lion's share of on-ball duties on Jamal Murray. Still, it would be a nice extra wrinkle for the Wolves if they could have Ant guard Murray at points. We saw this in their 2024 series as Edwards, McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker all shared on-ball duties defending Murray, which ultimately led to a bad series for his standards.
With great players, you can never make things too predictable for them, and that's what the Wolves have to do against Murray (and of course Nikola Jokic).
Just as importantly, Ant will have to remain engaged off the ball to defend against the Nuggets' complex offense. Off-ball engagement shouldn't be a concern in the playoffs, but given that Edwards could be overtaxed on offense and his knee injury, this is a fair concern.
The margins are so thin in terms of recovering and rotating off the ball that if Ant is a step slower due to his injury, that could spell doom against an elite Nuggets' offense.
Ant's offense is the primary reason fans should feel confident that an upset could be in the cards, particularly given the Nuggets' poor defense. Nevertheless, there's no denying the Wolves will need Edwards' two-way impact to maximize their upset chances, and that's not a certainty.
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