It was always clear that the San Antonio Spurs would pose a far greater challenge for the Minnesota Timberwolves than the Denver Nuggets did. This is especially true since the Spurs have an elite defense, while the Nuggets have a subpar defense. Three games into the series, the Wolves find themselves down 2-1 and are quickly realizing how difficult it is to match up with the Spurs' defense.
Thus far, according to Cleaning the Glass, the Wolves are posting just a 97.9 offensive rating, which is a stark contrast to their 114.1 offensive rating in the first-round. Frankly, it shouldn't be a shocker that the Wolves have struggled this much against such an elite defense, but it's absolutely worth noting, and it could ultimately cost them the series.
With Victor Wembanyama at the rim, it was always clear the Wolves would have a difficult time scoring at the rim as much as they did against Denver. In the second-round, the Wolves have shot just 50.6 percent within five feet of the hoop, whereas they shot 67.7 percent on these shots against the Nuggets. While the Wolves have still been generating shots at the rim, they haven't been converting at an efficient rate.
Going from Nikola Jokic, who you could attack both in pick-and-rolls and at the rim, to an all-time great defender is a totally different ball game.
In addition to the Spurs' elite rim protection, they pressure ball handlers relentlessly and don't play bad defenders. Against the Nuggets, Minnesota could hunt mismatches at will and had a massive advantage over Denver in the athleticism department. Now that the Timberwolves no longer have these advantages, though, they have struggled to find consistent offense.
It's unclear whether the Wolves can overcome the Spurs' elite defense
Game 3 was the Wolves' best offensive showing of the series thus far as they scored 108 points in a seven-point loss. While Naz Reid (18 points) and Rudy Gobert (13 points) had solid nights, Anthony Edwards was the only player who initiated the offense and provided consistent production.
Edwards was fantastic, scoring 32 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists. However, the Wolves will undoubtedly need more from Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, and Ayo Dosunmu. If the Wolves don't have more secondary creation and consistent scoring from this trio, their chances of winning this series are slim to none.
With Wemby taking away shots at the rim, Minnesota's offense has heavily relied on the drive-and-kick game. The Wolves knocked down a solid 35 percent of their 3s, and they generated some nice open looks. Nevertheless, for the drive-and-kick game to be truly effective, there needs to be more scoring around the rim.
Is that possible against Wemby, though? I honestly don't know.
And can they find other sources of offense to generate good shots? I have a bit more confidence in this area, especially when the Wolves go to their five-out look with Randle and Reid. Going to a five-out look where you stretch Wemby away from the rim and increase the movement both on and off the ball feels like an easy button to push. This five-out look also opens up the drive-and-kick game.
Leaning into five-out lineups more won't fix everything, but it's an adjustment to watch for.
Ultimately, the Wolves' inability to consistently generate offense against an elite Spurs defense could hurt them, and there's no denying how different this series has been from the first-round.
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