While the Denver Nuggets are justifiably the favorites going into this series, they do have one major weakness that the Timberwolves should be able to exploit, especially after their masterful trade deadline, where they acquired Ayo Dosunmu.
Denver isn't a good defensive team. They don't have a lot of elite perimeter defenders on the outside that can contain the ball, and Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas don't provide much rim protection either. The thing they struggle with the most, however, is defending in transition.
Ayo Dosunmu provides a transition threat the Timberwolves will love in this matchup
In recent years, the Timberwolves have been a slower, more half-court-oriented offensive team. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle love to do the majority of their scoring in isolation. But with the addition of Ayo Dosunmu and the emergence of Bones Hyland, the Timberwolves have played a lot faster as of late, and it has helped.
This transition offense will be a key to winning games against Denver, but in order to unlock these transition opportunities, the Wolves will need to be ultra-aggressive on defense to attempt to force turnovers. The Nuggets don't turn the ball over much, but when they do, they give up points off of those turnovers frequently, so generating more turnovers = more points.
Ayo can provide another closer if Donte DiVincenzo is having an off game
Donte DiVincenzo has been a streaky player for his whole Wolves tenure. It seems like he's either automatic from three or he can't buy one. The addition of Dosunmu gives the Wolves a bit of a safety blanket so that they aren't handcuffed to closing with Donte if he has a tough shooting night.
Ayo is better off the dribble, creating his own shot, a better facilitator, and he doesn't shoot as many threes as Donte, but he's still efficient from behind the arc. Both of them are similar in terms of defense. They aren't going to be premier ball-stoppers, but they're scrappy on the perimeter, and they can find ways to muck up the game and get into passing lanes.
This iteration of the Wolves is much different than the team that beat them in seven games two years ago. If they can lean into the transition opportunities and let Ayo and Bones inject their pace into the game, it could catch the Nuggets off guard and lead to some huge advantages in the Wolves' favor.
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