Heading into the 2025-26 NBA season, the Minnesota Timberwolves have championship hopes. However, one concern some people have with the Wolves' title chances is Rudy Gobert. The three-time All-Star showed some signs of offensive decline last season, averaging 12 points, his lowest mark since the 2015-16 season. Additionally, in the playoffs, Rudy averaged below double-digit points (7.9) for the first time in his playoff career, and he shot below 60 percent for the first time in his playoff career.
Gobert turned 33 this summer, and it's fair to wonder if this was simply somewhat of a down year for him or the new norm. The Athletic's Jon Krawczynski perfectly summed up why this Gobert situation is worth monitoring.
"He looks great coming into camp, Krawczynski said. He looks like he's in great shape, but he is getting a little older; big men do age at a different clip. So that's one thing you're going to keep an eye on early with the Timberwolves. Was last year's struggles related more to the trade and instability and things, or was it a physical decline?"
Krawczynski's question is a crucial one, and like he notes, it's something that could be determined early in the season. It's very well possible that Gobert simply had a down year as he became less of a priority in the Wolves' offense following the blockbuster Julius Randle trade. Nevertheless, it's just as possible that Gobert will continue to decline at 33, especially as Krawczynski noted that big men age quickly.
Rudy Gobert is a key swing factor for the Wolves
Gobert is clearly a swing factor for the Wolves' title chances, and if his decline continues, Minnesota could have a real problem on its hands. Having Naz Reid, the league's best backup big man, certainly helps. Regardless, it's unclear if Reid and Randle can anchor an elite defense.
Krawczynski also rightfully noted that Gobert got off to a slow start defensively last season. While the four-time Defensive Player of the Year will always be impactful as a rim protector, if he regresses on defense, it will be hard to play him starter-level minutes, given his offensive limitations.
Gobert has never been a star-level offensive player; he has always thrived as a lob threat and efficient interior scorer. In some ways, this simple role should ease concerns about his upcoming seasons. However, it's also possible that his already limited offensive skill set further declines, especially as he doesn't have the best hands.
If Gobert declines on offense, the Wolves will lean on Randle, Reid, and Anthony Edwards more. This still gives them the path to contention. Still, Gobert at least maintaining close to last year's production is the clearest path to contention the Wolves have, and that is a real possibility.