Since he signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Jonathan Kuminga has been penciled in as a starter. This was in part because Shams Charania said so and also due to Minnesota's glaring hole at power forward. On opening night against the Miami Heat, I believe Kuminga will be part of the starting unit.
Regardless, this could change over the course of the season. Furthermore, if you ask me, the Timberwolves' most effective lineup, and the one they opt to close with on most nights, won't include Kuminga. Instead, it will be a smaller look with Ayo Dosunmu.
Dosunmu is a better fit than Kuminga with the Wolves' established talent
Dosunmu brings some clear advantages to the Timberwolves. Firstly, unlike Kuminga, we know that he can thrive in a complementary role. While Kuminga could adjust his game, it's possible his affinity for taking difficult shots hurts the Wolves' offensive flow and takes away from their established talent.
Thankfully, Ayo's off-ball abilities make him a seamless fit alongside the Wolves' established talent, including Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, and Jaden McDaniels. On a similar note, Dosunmu (a 43.9 percent 3-point shooter) can give the Timberwolves more floor spacing, something Kuminga (a 33.3 percent 3-point shooter) doesn't offer.
There are valid concerns about the Kuminga-Rudy Gobert frontcourt from a floor-spacing standpoint. Generally speaking, this could make the Timberwolves' offense a bit clunky. In late-game situations, not having ample spacing for Edwards and Ball to attack could be especially detrimental.
Having Ayo alongside the starters, though, could give opposing defenses headaches. Do you leave open a respected catch-and-shoot threat, or roll the dice guarding Edwards or Ball straight up?
Additionally, while Kuminga might be a more talented creator on paper, Ayo is a more trustworthy decision-maker. That matters in high-leverage situations.
For these reasons, I predict that Dosunmu will be part of the Timberwolves' typical closing group more often than not and that this lineup will be the most statistically effective group.
Now, you might be thinking: Why wouldn't the Wolves just start Ayo then? My primary logic comes down to having more perimeter creation and playmaking off the bench, something that's more of a need than the skill set Kuminga provides. Speaking of what Kuminga provides, starting him is the best way to ensure that he buys into a complementary role.
Having Ayo off the bench will ensure that they utilize both his on- and off-ball abilities. Plus, it makes managing LaMelo's minutes smoother. Even if Dosunmu is the better fit with the starting lineup and, frankly, the better player overall, bringing him off the bench makes sense. It's also not rare for teams to close with a different lineup than they start with. I even made this argument before the Kuminga addition.
And again, even if Kuminga is the day-one starter, this doesn't mean he'll remain in this role.
The big trade-off in closing games with Ayo is that the Timberwolves would be sacrificing frontcourt size and rebounding. Still, being able to run a smoother offense outweighs this concern. Moreover, rebounding could be made up in the aggregate, and there are few forwards who are physically imposing enough to punish the Wolves for not having a traditional power forward.
As established, the Wolves don't have to have a fixed mindset here. If Kuminga has the hot hand or it's a favorable matchup, then by all means, close with him and not Ayo. Nevertheless, my point is that most nights will favor Dosunmu, and he'll be part of their best overall lineup.
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