Julius Randle certainly has more detractors than your typical star player. I tend to lean on the optimistic side with Randle. Nevertheless, it's clear that he's not perfect, and there's no denying that the Minnesota Timberwolves will need Randle to be on his A-Game to pull off a first-round upset.
On the bright side, the Denver Nuggets have a bottom-10 defense. Unfortunately, Aaron Gordon (the Nuggets' best defender) is tailor-made to make life frustrating for Randle. Given this, along with Randle's general inconsistencies, it's fair to wonder if he is capable of providing what the Wolves are banking on him to provide.
At his best, Randle looks like a championship-level second option and an ideal co-star next to Anthony Edwards. He can punish smaller defenders, is a fantastic finisher, and has great playmaking chops for his size. And if Randle's jump shot is falling, he is a truly elite three-level scorer.
Randle has proven to be an essential part of the Wolves' offense, and Chris Finch has empowered him just as much as Ant-Man. However, Randle is a highly erratic player.
The Timberwolves need the best version of Randle to upset the Nuggets
For the first 20 games, Randle looks like a borderline All-NBA player, averaging 23 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 6 assists on 50.2/35.6/81.3 shooting splits. After the All-Star break, he averaged 19 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 3.2 turnovers on 45.9/29.4/76.4 shooting splits.
For all the great things you can say about Randle, there's no denying this version of him is incredibly frustrating. He can settle for bad jump shots, makes slow decisions, and is turnover-prone. That's a dangerous recipe in a playoff setting.
This version of Randle may doom the Timberwolves, as it could leave them without a dependable second option.
Against the Nuggets, you need to match their elite offensive firepower, and the margins are so thin. To this end, having an All-Star level version of Randle could be an insurmountable disadvantage for Minnesota.
And none of this mentions his defense, which is yet another undeniable swing factor. Randle is talented enough to be a true two-way star. Still, he's extremely inconsistent. In the context of this series, he will likely have significant time guarding Nikola Jokic, which is obviously a tricky task.
Randle will also have to be attentive off the ball (which has been a problem all year). This will especially be key given the Nuggets' intricate offense.
His doubters might tell you that banking on such an erratic player in the postseason is a house of cards, and Randle will need to prove said doubters wrong (as he did last year).
The range of outcomes for Randle is incredibly wide. Simply having one or two good games likely won't be enough for the Wolves to beat the Nuggets. A totally lackluster series from Randle would make it challenging for the Wolves to even make it a competitive series.
On the bright side, if Randle can put it all together, the Wolves can pull another first-round upset and could be poised for another deep playoff run.
