Timberwolves' draft regret grows as Tyler Kolek breaks out

The NBA's Christmas Day games started with a bang as the New York Knicks beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 126-124. The lasting impression for me, and I'm sure many viewers, was Tyler Kolek, who notched 16 points and nine assists, including 11 fourth-quarter points.

This isn't the first time Kolek has thrived on a national stage, as just a few weeks ago, he notched 14 points and five assists in the NBA Cup final. In December, the second-year guard is averaging 7.7 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.3 rebounds on 50.7/39.3/100 shooting splits. Timberwolves fans got to see Kolek's impressive skill set up close this week as he dropped 20 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists without Jalen Brunson in Minnesota.

Whenever I watch Kolek, I can't help but think, man, he would be perfect on a Minnesota Timberwolves team that desperately needs a point guard. As the 34th pick in the 2024 draft, Kolek easily could have ended up in Minnesota. They notably picked Terrence Shannon Jr. with the 27th overall pick.

I'm not going to pretend that I would be a perfect general manager. Like most people, my unofficial track record on draft prospects has as many hits as it does misses. At the time, I thought Shannon was a massive steal, and I still believe in him. I also understand that trading up for Rob Dillingham made drafting two point guards unlikely.

Regardless, if the Wolves didn't trade up for Dillingham, Kolek certainly would have been in play at pick 27. So far in their young careers, Kolek has been far better than Shannon and Dillingham. Frankly, it shouldn't be shocking that Kolek is making an immediate impact.

Tyler Kolek would have been a perfect fit with the Wolves

When I think of the skill set Minnesota could use from their point guard, Kolek checks all the boxes. Firstly, he is a fantastic playmaker with an incredible basketball IQ. Kolek ranks in the 90th percentile with an absurd 31.6 assist percentage and the 98th percentile for assist-to-usage ratio per Cleaning the Glass. Likewise, he has a stellar 3.08 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Kolek can organize an offense like a traditional point guard, and he rarely makes mistakes, something that is becoming rare in the modern NBA. Frankly, this aspect of his game reminds me a lot of Mike Conley in the best possible way.

Beyond his impressive playmaking, Kolek can generate rim pressure, something the Wolves' perimeter players fail to do. Notably, Kolek is shooting 69 percent at the rim, which ranks 72nd for his position per Databallr. Kolek can knife through opposing defenses and is an extremely crafty ball handler. The Marquette product might not be a dynamic finisher, but Kolek is highly effective.

Kolek is a career 32 percent 3-point shooter, so there are still valid questions about his outside game. He may never be a true sniper, but I could see him being a quality outside shooter.

As someone who has been following Kolek since high school (shoutout St. George's prep), I've learned to expect the unexpected with Kolek. He went from playing at George Mason to being the best point guard in the country within three years. You simply can't put limits on this guy. Despite being an older second-year player (24), Kolek can still grow.

Defensively, Kolek fights and is impactful as you can be at 6-foot-2. Impressively, the Knicks are 10.2 possessions better on defense with Kolek on the floor. He is a high-effort on-ball defender in the mold of T.J. McConnell, someone he drew many pre-draft comparisons to.

As noted earlier, the Wolves selected Terrence Shannon Jr. seven spots ahead of Kolek. Shannon has failed to take advantage of a bigger role following Nickeil Alexander-Walker's departure. The 6-foot-6 wing is averaging just 4.3 points on less than 40 percent shooting from the field and has been a mess on defense. Dillingham has also struggled, averaging 3.7 points on 34.9 percent shooting from the field.

Again, trading up for Dillingham made drafting Kolek highly unlikely. However, there's an alternate reality where the Wolves don't trade up for Dillingham and instead draft Kolek at 27. That's an alternate reality I'd like to see.