It's been nearly a week since Jake Fischer reported that the Minnesota Timberwolves trading second-year guard Rob Dillingham is on the table. Honestly, at this point, Dillingham being traded feels likely. He has been out of the rotation for a month, and it's clear that Chris Finch has lost any confidence in him.
When Dillingham has played, he struggled mightily, averaging 3.6 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists on 33.9/34.5/75 shooting splits. For a 6-foot-2 guard to provide such little value as a scorer and playmaker makes playing him on a competitive team hard to jusitfy, especially given Bones Hyland's emergence.
Trading him sounds like a reasonable move, especially since the Wolves seem opposed to moving off anyone in the top six of their rotation. Nevertheless, I'm dubious of his value. Yes, Dillingham was a lottery pick in 2024, and I'm sure teams (especially rebuilding ones) would bewilling to roll the dice on him. But the idea of a trade centered around Dillingham netting the Timberwolves an impact player seems a bit far-fetched to me.
At 21, Dillingham still has potential. However, the NBA is a what have you done for me lately league, and with how poorly Dillingham has played, other teams around the league have all the leverage. The Wolves will likely have to attach another player or assets with Dillingham to make a truly impactful trade -- that's easier said than done.
The path to landing a high-impact player in exchange for Dillingham could be tricky
During Fischer's reporting last week, he mentioned the idea of the Wolves combining Dillingham and Mike Conley to target a mid-tier salaried guard. On the surface, this idea makes sense; the Wolves would be able to target players making less $20 million with this pairing.
Conley is a fantastic veteran presence and has an expiring $10.7 million contract. However, the 38-year-old doesn't offer a ton of on-court value. As such, a Dillingham-Conley package might not entice opposing teams. Guys like Collin Sexton and Dennis Schroder are mid-tier salaried guards who I could see the Wolves targeting.
Given that we've recently seen both players be traded for relatively cheap packages, it's possible that a deal centered around Dillingham and Conley could work. Regardless, multiple teams need to upgrade their guard play, and it's easy to see a world where the Wolves get outbid, or they'll be forced to part ways with their extremely limited draft capital.
One recent example of a lottery pick who was traded after a slow start to his career is Obi Toppin. In 2023, Toppin was traded to the Indiana Pacers for two second-round picks. For a Wolves team that is trying to find an impact player, this isn't an ideal example. Plus, it's worth noting that Toppin showed more signs of potential with the New York Knicks than Dillingham has thus far. The 6-foot-9 forward notably averaged 7 points with a 56.6 effective field goal percentage in limited minutes with the Knicks.
Let's say teams don't value Conley's leadership and expiring contract, or the Wolves decide against trading him, Minnesota will likely pursue a player on a cheap contract in exchange for Dillingham. Names like Kris Dunn and Jose Alvarado come to mind. However, this would likely involve the Wolves sacrificing some of their already limited draft capital or giving up another young player.
This would be a tough pill for the Wolves to swallow, given their lack of draft capital and that they invested two first-round picks to trade up for Dillingham on draft night. Nevertheless, if the Wolves can put themselves in a better position to win, biting the bullet and trading Dillingham (likely with extra assets) is something that might have to be done.
Ultimately, what value Dillingham has, and what other players or assets the Wolves will have to pair with him, will be a key factor in determining what trade deadline moves Minnesota can pull off.