Timberwolves free agent forecast: Predicting if Naz Reid will re-sign

NBA free agency begins on June 30th. With three key players entering free agency, the Minnesota Timberwolves face some diffcult decisions. One of those players is Naz Reid. The beloved big man has a $15 million player option that he could decline and test the open market. Reid is eligible to sign a four-year $87.2 million extension with the Wolves, or he could opt in and sign a four-year $94.2 million extension. Notably, an agreement could be reached before free agency starts, as Reid is eligible to sign either extension on June 27th. Let's dive into the chances that Reid re-signs in Minnesota.

Reid's impact and value

As a floor spacer, secondary creator, and playmaker, the 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year's value is immense. The Wolves desperately lack shooting, playmaking, and shot creation outside of Anthony Edwards. Reid averaged a career-high 14.2 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists while shooting an impressive 37.9 percent from beyond the arc this past season. Having a big man with such a well-rounded offensive skill set is rare. The Timberwolves don't have a rotational backup center other than Reid, which further demonstrates the need to retain him.

Minnesota's key possible free agents are Reid, Julius Randle, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. All signs point to the Wolves prioritizing Reid and Randle. Chris Finch recently spoke optimistically about the chances of re-signing Reid and Randle. Ultimately, all signs point to the Wolves being able to retain Reid.

As mentioned, he could sign a four-year extension before free agency, worth either $87.2 million or $94.2 million, depending on whether he opts out of his contract. The other contract that has been floated around for Reid, if he opts out, is a three-year, $57 million deal. While this is slightly less annual value, it would give Reid the chance to test the market, and it would eventually allow him to make more when the cap is higher in three years.

For the Wolves, if Reid re-signs on this contract, it would help them save some money, and they could possibly avoid the second apron. However, any of these three contracts would be fair value for Reid, given that he's 25 and one of the league's best role players.

Possible suitors

While the Wolves will prioritize re-signing Reid, he'll undoubtedly have plenty of suitors around the league. One known suitor is the Detroit Pistons, who can clear the cap space needed to sign Reid to the three-year, $57 million deal. Reid has expressed a desire to start, which could lead him to leave the Wolves. The Pistons seem like the most obvious threat to sign Reid.

The Brooklyn Nets have the league's most cap space, so they could be another suitor for Reid. The Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, and Golden State Warriors are all intriguing basketball fits, but don't have confirmed interest in Reid. Moreover, it's guaranteed that they could clear the necessary cap space, setting up a possible sign-and-trade. Overall, it's likely that plenty of teams will be interested in Reid if he hits the open market.

Prediction

My prediction is that Reid will re-sign on a four-year, $87.2 million extension. While the possibility of testing the open market is always enticing, it's tough to pass up the security Minnesota can offer. The Wolves give Reid the best chance to win and get paid. Earning a four-year contract that pays just over $20 million a year while competing for a title next year makes returning to the Wolves logical for Reid. The Timberwolves could enter the second apron by re-signing Reid and Randle. However, that's a price worth paying for a team capable of winning the title.