Anthony Edwards will likely miss at least the start of the Minnesota Timberwolves' second-round series against the San Antonio Spurs, making Julius Randle's production even more important. The Wolves were able to withstand a so-so offensive series from Randle in the first-round against the Denver Nuggets. He averaged a solid 19.2 points on subpar 43/30/74.4 shooting splits against Denver.
However, the 62-win Spurs are a different beast, particularly given their fourth-ranked defense. And unfortunately, they have the personnel to make life difficult for Randle, which could ultimately doom Minnesota's upset chances.
Randle excels at punishing mismatches, but the Spurs don't play weak defenders, and even their guards have adequate size. Of course, Victor Wembanyama's elite rim protection further complicates things for Randle.
Randle's ability to overcome this difficult style of defense will be a key swing factor, and frankly, his track record against similar defense makes his play a sizable concern.
Randle must overcome the challenges of the Spurs' elite defense
The Spurs will likely load up on Randle, but can he make the right reads as a passer? He mostly did against the Nuggets, but the Spurs have significantly more athleticism and general defensive acumen. This could also significantly hinder Randle's scoring abilities.
Randle also has the tendency to take difficult shots, which could prove to be detrimental against the Spurs.
In the past, we've seen Randle struggle mightily against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who play a similar style of defense. Now, with Edwards' injury, it's fair to see Randle's struggles against this type of defense reaching another level.
To make matters worse, Randle shot 30 percent from 3-point range in the first-round and 31.5 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season. As such, he can't make the Spurs pay from deep range. This, coupled with how difficult the Spurs can make life for him inside the arc, could set up Randle to have a down series.
During their three regular season meetings, Randle struggled somewhat against the Spurs, averaging 18 points on 43.6/20/78.3 shooting splits. This lack of efficient scoring could prove to be problematic. On the bright side, he took care of the ball, averaging 5.7 assists and just 1.7 turnovers.
It will be essential for Jaden McDaniels and Ayo Dosunmu to provide stellar production if Randle struggles. Furthermore, this possibility adds to the importance of Edwards' potential return.
Listen, I'm dubious of Randle having a strong series against this type of defense, but I don't want to be entirely negative. If Randle can make the right reads and provide a blend of scoring and playmaking, the Wolves could have a real shot to accomplish the unexpected.
Plus, while Randle struggled offensively in the first-round I thought he had a great defensive series. In the regular season, he guarded Wemby at times and provided a real challenge for him with his physicality. As such, there remains a pathway for Randle to have an impactful two-way series.
Still, there's no denying that there are valid concerns to be had, given Randle's typical struggles against this style of defense, and the increased attention he'll receive with Edwards likely being sidelined for at least some of the series.
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