Currently, the Minnesota Timberwolves sit at sixth in the Western Conference with a 34-22 record. Yet they're 1.5 games ahead of the No. 7 seed Phoenix Suns and 1.5 games behind the No. 3 seed Denver Nuggets. As such, the post-All-Star break portion of the season will be crucial for the Wolves.
The advantages of avoiding the Play-In Tournament are obvious, but most notably, it would give the Wolves some extra rest and an easier first-round matchup.
But how many wins do they need to avoid the Play-In? Currently, the Suns have a 58.2 winning percentage, which translates to 47.7 wins across 82 games. Let's round up to 48 -- meaning if things stay the same, Minnesota will need 49 wins. The Wolves need to go 15-11 during the final stretch to hit this threshold. That's very doable, and they'd actually be playing slightly below their pace.
Avoiding the Play-In should be the primary goal for Minnesota. However, in an ideal world, the Timberwolves snag a top-three seed. Not only would this give the Wolves homecourt advantage in the first round, but they would be on the opposite side of the bracket as the Oklahoma City Thunder.
As mentioned, this is an attainable goal for the Wolves. Using winning percentages again, the Nuggets are on pace for 52.1 wins, so let's round up and say the Wolves' magic number is 53. The Wolves would need to go 19-7 during the final stretch of the season to hit this number. That's a tougher bar to clear, but it's not impossible.
Avoiding the Play-In seems likely for the Wolves
Over the past four years, the Wolves have the fourth-best post All-Star break record. Starting relatively slow and surging late is a specialty of this squad. The Wolves' 17-4 record in the final 21 games last season helped them avoid the Play-In.
Another thing working in the Wolves' favor is that, per Cleaning the Glass, they are playing at a 54.7 win pace based on their efficiency differential. A few awful late-game collapses have tilted this number in a negative way.
On paper, the Wolves are clearly a top-five team in the West.
Anthony Edwards is a top-five-level player in the league, Jaden McDaniels has blossomed into a legitimate third option, and they have a top 10 defense. Plus, unlike many of their Western Conference foes, the Wolves got better at the trade deadline by trading for Ayo Dosunmu. Given how problematic their bench was this season, Ayo could be a real difference maker in their final place in the standings.
Strength of schedule is possibly the only thing working against the Wolves. Notably, they have the third toughest SOS for the remainder of the season, and the Wolves have a below .500 record against winning teams.
All in all, though, I feel pretty confident about the Wolves avoiding the Play-In. Still, they'll have to take care of business, and their schedule doesn't do them any favors. A top-three seed isn't out of the question by any means, but if I had to make a prediction, I think the Wolves will finish as the No. 4 seed.