The Minnesota Timberwolves aren't playing their best basketball as the playoffs quickly approach. Notably, they are just 1-3 in their last four games and have the league's worst offensive rating in the past seven games. Needless to say, this trend should concern fans.
One of the biggest specific concerns, though, is the shot creation next to Anthony Edwards. While Ant hasn't looked 100 percent in his two games since returning from his knee injury, I have no doubt he'll get back to form before the playoffs. It is unclear, though, if Julius Randle can provide consistent second-option production given his enormous inconsistencies.
In the unfortunate event that Randle can't rise to the occasion, the Wolves will be counting on Jaden McDaniels to fill this void, which is complicated due to his own knee injury and inconsistencies. Regardless of what round the Wolves lose in, it's easy to see secondary creation and half-court offense being central to their shortcomings.
The Wolves' shot creation next to Anthony Edwards is a valid concern
Throughout the season, the Timberwolves' half-court offense has been subpar for their standards. Per Cleaning the Glass, Minnesota ranks 13th in half-court offense but fourth in transition offense. Sure, in the playoffs, they could still rely on their transition scoring. Nevertheless, when things tighten up, the Wolves will need to be more efficient in the half-court.
There are several notable problems, so Randle needs to provide more consistent production (but that's a big piece of the puzzle, especially in the playoffs). Randle has looked better as of late, but there's no denying he hasn't looked like himself since the All-Star break. During this 20-game stretch, he is averaging 17.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 3.1 turnovers on 45.6/27.4/73.2 shooting splits. The Kentucky product has also been underwhelming against top-end defenses.
McDaniels is counted on to be a third, not a second-option, but he's equally inconsistent, and his injury complicates things further. Perhaps Ayo Dosunmu can continue his recent stellar play, but will that be enough if Randle and/or McDaniels struggle?
Moreover, Bones Hyland is an erratic microwave scorer with an unproven track record, Naz Reid is in the midst of a slump, and Donte DiVincenzo is a limited self-creator.
Then there's Rudy Gobert's offensive limitations, which allow defenses to disregard him and send the house at Anthony Edwards (and Julius Randle). Considering that teams are already exposing this weakness, it's fair to believe this strategy will only be utilized further, and it could prove to be costly.
Gobert might be played off the court due to these limitations, which in turn might cause their defense to plummet. And, if Gobert receives heavy minutes and isn't involved in the offense, that will make things more challenging for the Wolves' complementary stars.
The Wolves shouldn't get too excited about a favorable first-round matchup
Now, the Wolves' first-round matchup could help them get back on track. The Los Angeles Lakers rank 19th in defensive rating, and the Denver Nuggets rank 21st. This, coupled with the Lakers' injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, could benefit the Wolves.
However, the Wolves will need to use the final five regular season games to get their offense back on track and build back good habits. Furthermore, the Wolves' goal isn't to make it out of the first-round, it's to make an NBA Finals run.
As such, the Wolves will need consistent secondary scoring and half-court offense in later rounds. Unfortunately, it remains to be seen if the Wolves will get this needed production from their complementary players.