To me, Rudy Gobert is the Minnesota Timberwolves' biggest X-Factor. The Wolves' poor offense when Gobert is on the court and their poor defense when he's off the court create a challenging paradox. This effect will only be amplified in the playoffs against the Denver Nuggets, as Gobert will play a significant role in limiting Nikola Jokic.
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Timberwolves' offense is 8.4 points per 100 possessions worse with Gobert on the court, but their defense is 11.8 points per 100 possessions better with Gobert on the court. More specifically, when he is on the court, the Wolves have a 113.6 offensive rating and 108.8 defensive rating, but when he is off the court, they have a 122.1 ORTG and a 120.6 DRTG.
Whether the Timberwolves can produce on offense with Gobert and stay afloat on defense without him remains a massive question regarding Minnesota's upset chances.
Rudy Gobert's offense could limit his minutes
The good news is that since Kyle Anderson's arrival, the Wolves' non-Rudy defense has improved. In lineups with Anderson and without Gobert, the Wolves have a 113.4 DRTG -- a sizable improvement from the season average.
Unfortunately, Gobert's offense hasn't improved, and it's arguably gotten worse in recent weeks. The numbers don't totally bear this out, but watching the games, it's been evident that teams are sagging off Gobert even more than usual. Likewise, Gobert's teammates have trusted him less due to his poor hands and awkward movements.
Gobert's track record in the playoffs is also cause for pause. Last year, he averaged 7.9 points, and oftentimes his offensive shortcomings made it difficult to close games with him. Notably, Gobert's minutes were reduced by 5.8 from last year's regular season to last year's playoffs. This series is projected to be a shootout, which could further play Gobert off the court.
On the surface level, the simple solution would be to give Rudy the ball when he's open. But if he's dropping passes or struggling to finish plays, that's a lot easier said than done.
Now, the Nuggets' poor defense and rim protection could work in Gobert's favor. However, since he struggles with routine plays, it will always be uncertain if he can make a positive offensive impact.
Chris Finch and the Timberwolves will (likely) have tough choices to make
Playing Kyle more is a simple remedy if Gobert gets played off the court. Still, it's fair to wonder if the trend of playing Anderson will continue to result in high-level defense against Jokic and the Nuggets. Furthermore, Anderson's poor 3-point shooting could hinder his offensive viability in a playoff setting as well.
To be clear, I still expect Anderson to earn more minutes if Gobert is played off the court. Nevertheless, it's more likely that the Wolves close with Julius Randle and Naz Reid or go small with Jaden McDaniels at the four if Gobert's offense limits him. Can this group get stops, though?
If the Wolves' defense without Gobert proves to be untenable (which is possible), Chris Finch might opt to keep Rudy on the court despite his offensive deficiencies. But does this give the Timberwolves a real chance to win, and will Gobert's teammates hit him when he's left open?
Whether it's finding a way to consistently fortify the minutes on defense with Gobert off the floor or living through the inevitable lows of his offense, the Wolves will have to fix this paradox. Frankly, if what we saw in the regular season carries over, the Wolves' chances of pulling off an upset are limited.
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