Anyone who watched the Minnesota Timberwolves closely at the end of the regular season could tell you that Naz Reid didn't look remotely like himself. After the All-Star break, Reid averaged 12 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.7 turnovers, with 41.9/27.8/71.8 shooting splits.
Reid's lingering shoulder injury is certainly a driving factor in his declining production, and unfortunately, this trend continued in Game 1's loss to the Denver Nuggets. In 17 minutes of play, Naz scored five points on 2-of-6 shooting. With Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle both having off-scoring games, the Wolves could have desperately used an extra scoring punch.
To make matters worse, Reid let his off-shooting night trickle into his defense, and he seemed to be affected more than anyone by the questionable officiating.
The bigger picture is that if this poor production from Reid continues, the Timberwolves will face an uphill battle to come back against the Nuggets.
The Timberwolves will need a better version of Reid to upset the Nuggets
The Wolves need Reid to be at his best for several reasons. Firstly, he is central to their bench scoring and pace. In Game 1, the Wolves' bench scored a subpar 22 points, with Ayo Dosunmu accounting for 14 of these points. That's simply not a winning recipe for the Wolves going forward.
When he's at his best, Reid's floor spacing opens up the court for his teammates and helps elevate the Wolves' overall offense.
The Wolves will need their stars to play up to their high standards, or the rest of the team will have to pick up the slack. To truly maximize their upset chances, both of these things will have to happen.
On a similar note, if Randle's shooting struggles and poor decision-making continue, the Wolves absolutely need Reid to return to form.
Now, it's worth wondering if Chris Finch would yank Randle in favor of Reid down the stretch of games, even if Randle is at his worst and Reid is at his best. Still, it's clear that Reid is a much-needed safeguard for Randle's erratic play. As such, if Reid and Randle both struggle, the Wolves' path to upsetting the Nuggets is extremely slim.
In the unfortunate event that both Randle and Reid continue to struggle, Finch might have to lean into more small-ball lineups. The Nuggets have a ton of positional size, which makes this pivot risky, but it might be one that the Wolves are forced to make.
Reid is one of the best bench players in the league and has been an essential part of the Wolves' success in recent years. Nevertheless, with Reid's shoulder injury affecting him for this long and how much it directly impacts his shooting, it's hard for me to believe that he will get back on track.
All in all, Reid's injury, paired with Ant not being 100 percent, and Randle possibly continuing to struggle, could ruin the Timberwolves' chances of an upset.
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