This past offseason, the Minnesota Timberwolves had three major free agents: Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Unfortunately, as they were on the edge of the second tax apron, it was improbable that they would retain all three players.
Given Randle's value as a co-star next to Anthony Edwards, it felt nearly certain that he would stay. As we know, they ultimately re-signed Reid to a five-year $125 million contract and let Alexander-Walker sign with the Atlanta Hawks.
At the time, this decision seemed highly logical. Reid is not only a fan favorite, but he's one of the league's most productive reserves, and at the time was clearly a better player than Alexander-Walker. Furthermore, with Terrence Shannon Jr., Jaylen Clark, and Rob Dillingham, the Wolves had more logical replacements on the roster for NAW.
However, with the Hawks, Alexander-Walker has leveled up and now arguably looks like a better player than Reid. He is now averaging 20.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. At the same time, the Wolves' young players have failed to deliver much value. As such, it's fair to suggest that the Wolves should be second-guessing their decision.
Choosing Reid over Alexander-Walker seemed like the right move
Listen, at the time, Minnesota's offseason approach seemed logical, and I think the majority of general managers would have done the same thing. Nevertheless, it's hard to argue that it's worked out for them in any meaningful way. Even if just one of the young players took a clear step up, this decision would look a lot better -- but they haven't.
This is a classic example of process versus results. The process of Minnesota's offseason decision-making was rational -- but the results thus far have been less than ideal.
I also want to be clear that Reid is still a fantastic player and this isn't a shot at him. However, he has clear deficiencies on defense, given his lack of switchability and rim protection. The Reid-Randle minutes have been a disaster on defense. Notably, this duo posts an awful 121.5 defensive rating, which ranks in the 14th percentile per Cleaning the Glass.
As a result, people are wondering if the Wolves will trade either Reid or Randle at the deadline.
If the Wolves opted to keep Alexander-Walker over Reid, they would have had $9 million extra to upgrade their center depth, and ultimately, they could have been a more well-rounded team. Now, it's crucial to note that NAW wouldn't have blossomed into the 20 ppg scorer he's become in Atlanta.
Nevertheless, there's no denying the Wolves are missing his secondary playmaking, creation, and perimeter defense. Again, it's unfair to say this was an outright awful decision -- at the time, it looked like a no-brainer, but it's certainly a decision that is aging worse than ever expected.