The Minnesota Timberwolves top priority in free agency is to re-sign Ayo Dosunmu. It feels like a no-brainer to re-sign Ayo, given how smoothly he fit with the team after arriving at the deadline. Still, Wolves fans are understandably nervous about him possibly leaving, considering what happened with Nickeil Alexander-Walker last season.Â
This time around, though, there aren't a ton of natural suitors on the market, and Dosunmu is by far the Wolves' most impactful free agent.
The teams with the most cap space don't make a ton of sense for Ayo
According to Keith Smith of Spotrac, there are three teams with projected cap space to sign a max player this summer: the Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers, and Brooklyn Nets.
Beyond that, he noted that the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks could offer slightly below the max. Then there are 10 teams with access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
Ayo's value is projected to be slightly above this non-tax MLE (which equates to just over $15 million a year). With the Bulls, Lakers, Nets, Pistons, and Hawks being the only teams that can exceed this threshold, the chances of Minnesota re-signing Ayo seem high.
Would Dosunmu really go back to the Bulls, who are rebuilding, or join an upstart Nets team? Even if they offer lucrative deals, I don't think so. After years in basketball purgatory, Dosunmu presumably wants a chance to win, and that's what the Wolves offer him.
Now the Lakers, Hawks, and Pistons could offer this chance to compete. However, much of the Lakers' cap space will likely be used on a new deal for Austin Reaves, and likewise for the Pistons with Jalen Duren. CJ McCollum will likely cut into the Hawks' current cap space, and Ayo's skill set isn't a major need for them.
The lack of natural suitors for Ayo makes a return to Minnesota likely
Considering all of this, you have to go outside the box when looking for a team that could pry Dosunmu away from the Wolves. Recently, Michael Shearer of Hoops Habit pitched the Washington Wizards as an ideal suitor for Ayo -- they have access to the non-tax MLE.
The Wizards should be far more competitive next season with Trae Young, Anthony Davis, and the No. 1 pick. Nevertheless, the Wolves are still closer to true title contention, and they can offer Dosunmu an extension of three years, $52.4 million, before free agency even starts. I don't see why Ayo would take less money to join the Wizards.
The point is that it's difficult to find a realistic threat to poach Ayo, especially when considering the Wolves have his Bird rights, meaning they can re-sign him even if it means going over the cap.
I've debated how likely it is for Ayo to take the Wolves' extension offer of three years, $52.4 million, before free agency. Regardless, given the lack of suitors who will pay him more than this while offering a chance to compete, the possibility can't be ruled out.
Maybe a team like the Nets throws a big offer at Dosunmu, and the Wolves will have to offer something closer to the $20 million range annually, but a return to Minnesota seems probable.
Ultimately, a close inspection of the teams' financial situations and the presumed importance of winning to Ayo should make fans feel great about the chances of him being re-signed.
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