The Minnesota Timberwolves had a difficult decision to make this past summer. At the time, it looked like they may have made the wrong choice. 30 games into the season, that has been confirmed: choosing Naz Reid over Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been a disastrous mistake.
Julius Randle, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were all key rotation players on the Timberwolves team that reached back-to-back Western Conference Finals, and all were up for new contracts this offseason. With the NBA’s heavy-handed limitations placed on teams above the second tax apron, Minnesota decided it couldn’t justify bringing all three back on market deals.
Keeping Randle was the easy choice; he blossomed in Minnesota as an ideal running mate for Anthony Edwards and a good stylistic foil to Rudy Gobert in the frontcourt. The decision then came down to Naz Reid, offense-first swing big, or Nickeil Alexander-Walker, defense-first swing guard. The Timberwolves chose Reid and let “NAW” sign with the Atlanta Hawks.
Their reasoning was well reported. With Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark all under contract, Minnesota thought that it had multiple paths to replacing Alexander-Walker’s impact in the rotation. Losing Reid looked like the more problematic outcome as they had no ready replacement.
Hindsight is 20-20, of course, but their decision looks like a grave mistake.
The Timberwolves should have kept Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Naz Reid signed a much larger deal than Alexander-Walker, a five-year, $125 million behemoth that seemed to go above the market rate for Reid, who is ultimately a really good third big. NAW’s deal with the Atlanta Hawks was a four-year pact totaling $61 million, an average of $15 million rather than $25 million.
That is defensible if Reid is a significantly better player than Alexander-Walker, but he has not been in any way to start the season. Reid has been fine, shooting slightly worse than last season but largely the same level of player with the same basic strengths and weaknesses.
Alexander-Walker, in contrast, has taken a major leap forward. He continues to be a strong defender capable ot guarding multiple positions, but he is now an offensive force as well. He is shooting 37.3 percent from deep on an astounding 7.5 attempts per game, a transformation that would have seemed inexplicable just three or four years ago. He went from averaging 9.4 points per game in a supporting role on offense last season to 20.3 points as the second option on the Hawks during Trae Young’s absence.
The coup de grace is that the players the Timberwolves expected to step up have largely disappointed. Second-year guard Rob Dillingham looks like he might be a bust, Jaylen Clark continues to be lost on offense, and Terrence Shannon Jr. hasn’t been able to string together his flashes. Bones Hyland has elevated into the fourth guard role in the rotation, and he is no one’s idea of a lockdown defender.
The Timberwolves could have bit the bullet and paid both Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. They could have negotiated harder with Reid and not paid him the farm. At worst, they could have bade Reid farewell and kept Alexander-Walker around. The combination of NAW and Ant in the backcourt would have the Timberwolves at an even higher level right now; without him, Ant is trying to paper over less than ideal option in the backcourt.
The right decision was there for the Wolves, and they instead chose a grave mistake. And it may end up costing them in a major way.