At some level, projecting a breakout season for Minnesota Timberwolves wing Terrence Shannon Jr. is easy. After a fairly rocky regular season, Shannon showcased his upside in the playoffs when called upon due to injuries, averaging 11.8 points, including a stellar 24-point game to close out the Denver Nuggets in the first-round.
After this game, head coach Chris Finch admitted it took them too long to figure out that Shannon thrives with the ball in his hands. With the coaching staff understanding this revelation and Shannon at full health, a breakout season could feel inevitable.
Yet the question remains: Is Shannon a skilled enough on-ball player to justify a role that empowers him as a creator?
Empowering Shannon on the ball might not be in the Timberwolves' best interest
Now one could argue he slots in perfectly as the team's sixth man, and in a role like this, it will be easy to empower him on the ball. However, the reality is that he won't just "run the bench unit." Indeed, Shannon will play much of his minutes with either LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards.
Both players can play off-ball, but does it make sense to have them play off-ball more in favor of Shannon? Even other guards like Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland (particularly Ayo) might be more worthy of on-ball duties while being capable off-ball players.
Even though Shannon has clear promise as a microwave scorer, he's fairly inconsistent and inefficient at this moment in time. That's not to say he can't be a positive player, but if he's going to earn a sixth- man role with a ton of on-ball duties, he needs to work on these areas.
Likewise, without tangible growth, it's hard to justify giving him significantly more on-ball duties.
Shannon's passing vision and general decision-making also need to improve for him to thrive in an on-ball role. The dilemma is that off-ball, his spot-up shooting isn't up to par (he shot 34 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s last year), and that his strength is getting downhill and finishing around the rim.
Again, though, unleashing him on the ball would come at the expense of some of the Wolves' more established talent, and it's unclear if this would be worthwhile.
I do see a scenario where Shannon thrives in transition given his speed, but plays more off-ball in the half-court. This could be the best of both worlds, so to speak. Regardless, Shannon would need to seek out these opportunities in transition and improve his off-ball chops.
Now, it's worth noting that despite Finch's admission and the general notion that Shannon was off-ball a ton, he ranked in the 62nd percentile for on-ball usage per Databallr. Bennedict Mathurin, a decent comparison for the high-end version of Shannon, was on the ball for just 3 percent more.
As such, it's worth wondering how many more on-ball reps are truly available for Shannon. And when he's off-ball, it's worth wondering how he'll be able to impact the game.
With how the Wolves roster is shaking out, Shannon will naturally get more minutes, and I'd be shocked if he doesn't average more than 5.6 points per game. Nevertheless, the idea of a true breakout season isn't something I feel confident about given the Timberwolves' sudden perimeter depth and superior creators.
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