The Minnesota Timberwolves’ season is officially on the brink after Tuesday's loss to the San Antonio Spurs. While Julius Randle becoming a black hole on both ends of the court is one thing to blame if the Wolves can’t overcome a 3-2 series deficit, fans have also dug up the trade that brought him to Minnesota and sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks.
The Wolves have reached the Western Conference finals in back-to-back seasons since the trade – and still have the possibility of making it three in a row. But Towns is preparing for his third straight trip as the Knicks dispatched the Philadelphia 76ers in a four-game sweep in the Eastern Conference.
Towns’ performance in the Knicks playoff run, where he is averaging 17.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists over 10 games, isn’t helping Wolves fans who miss their All-Star big man. But the real reason to blame if the Timberwolves’ season comes to an end is the change in the collective bargaining agreement and the Rudy Gobert trade that was made before the NBA put its apron system in place.
The Karl-Anthony Towns trade isn't hurting the Timberwolves the most right now
The NBA instituted changes to the collective bargaining agreement in 2023, which most notably installed the “apron” system to penalize high-spending teams that exceeded the salary cap. Each apron has its share of penalties, but the second apron takes extreme measures, including free agency and trade restrictions as well as draft pick penalties that “freeze” future picks and even put them at the end of the first round of the draft.
Before the penalties were instituted, the Wolves could have paid Towns, who is making $57 million this season with a player option of $61 million according to Spotrac, and Anthony Edwards, making $45.5 million this season, comfortably.
They also still would have had room to trade for Gobert, who is making $35.5 million this season. But keeping all three would have subjected them to the second apron, which made Towns the odd man out.
Some would say that dealing Gobert would have been a better decision. But the Wolves would have been selling him for pennies on the dollar after a rough first season in Minnesota and wouldn’t have gotten the return that Towns would have brought back in a trade. Minnesota also sent four first-round picks and a pick swap to the Utah Jazz in the Gobert trade, making it a significant investment that they had to see through.
But the Gobert trade is what’s really messing with the Wolves at the moment. With the salaries of Gobert, Edwards, and Julius Randle ($33.3 million per Spotrac) on the books, Minnesota sits just $12.1 million below the second apron.
The threat of dipping into the second apron for another year also priced them out of Nickiel Alexander-Walker last summer and kept the Wolves from making a big change that could put them over the hump this season.
The loss of draft picks from the Gobert trade is also haunting the Wolves right now. With the NBA keeping tabs on high-spending teams, hitting on those picks is important to form a cheap nucleus with high end talent.
The Spurs had the fortune of winning the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery and selecting Victor Wembanyama overall, but they’ve also drafted well, taking Stephon Castle with the fourth overall pick in 2024 and Dylan Harper with the second overall pick in 2025. Even after completing their rebuild, the Spurs still have eight first-round picks in the next seven drafts.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, who the Wolves could face in the Western Conference Finals if they come back against the Spurs, have also built through the draft. While their amount of draft picks from aggressive trades has become a meme, they’ve turned it to an advantage, selecting Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams in the first-round of the 2022 draft and pairing him with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who came over with five first-round draft picks in a trade that sent Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers.
In the aftermath of the Gobert and Towns trades, the Wolves have entered an environment where they have to hit on picks without having many. While president of basketball operations Tim Connelly tried to circumvent this by trading up with the Spurs to select Rob Dillingham eighth overall in 2024, that miss became even more detrimental to the Wolves' chances of competing.
It makes it easy to blame the Towns' trade for the current shortcomings. But it’s hard to remember the story isn’t over. If Randle gets traded for a reliable second option, it could be a benefit to the roster.
Donte DiVincenzo was also an asset before tearing his Achilles tendon. Plus, Joan Beringer, who was acquired via the Pistons’ first-round pick in the deal, could be of service either as a long-term piece or a trade chip to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo this summer.
That may not take the sting out of getting rid of a beloved player who is in the middle of another deep playoff run. But they’re all things to consider for a deal that runs deeper than just a couple of players.
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