On a recent episode of The Mismatch podcast, Chris Vernon mentioned the Minnesota Timberwolves as a contender that may possibly disappoint. Vernon said this could be a "transition year," citing the age of Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, paired with the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and some of the younger guys taking on bigger roles. Undoubtedly, Vernon is far from the only person to subscribe to the idea that Minnesota could have somewhat of a down year, and it's a reasonable take.
There's no denying that the Wolves' young player will get bigger roles this season. However, I view this "transition year" in a different way, and I'm optimistic about the Wolves' chances to compete even in an improved Western Conference.
The Wolves are well-equipped to fill the void of Alexander-Walker
While there are certainly some reasons for concern, there are also plenty of reasons for optimism with this Wolves squad. First and foremost, this is a team that has been to back-to-back Western Conference finals.
Yes, losing Alexander-Walker is significant. However, Terrence Shannon Jr. is more than capable of stepping into this role. Notably, Shannon scored 35 points in the last three games of the Western Conference finals.
Shannon is a gifted scorer who provides instant energy off the bench on both ends of the floor. At 25, he is more than ready for a bigger role. The Wolves also have Jaylen Clark, who is a high-level on-ball defender and spot-up shooter. Much like TSJ, Clark is 23 and has a polished skill set.
Given this, the loss of Alexander-Walker shouldn't be all that concerning. Undoubtedly, a key part of the Wolves' season will be playing these two young guys more, but this should go smoothly.
Anthony Edwards and an elite supporting cast give the Wolves a solid chance to contend
Another key reason to believe in the Wolves is Anthony Edwards. When you have a top-five level superstar who is just 24 and a high-quality supporting cast, you always have a chance to compete. Given his age, Edwards could make another leap, especially as a playmaker, something that would undoubtedly change the Wolves' season outlook.
The supporting cast is still stellar and mostly intact. Minnesota ranked in the top 10 in offense and defense last season; this level of balance and star power is a recipe for success.
Last year, the Wolves got off to a slower start integrating Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. However, they closed the season with a 17-4 record and dominated the first two rounds of the playoffs. Randle proved to be the perfect co-star next to Edwards as a secondary creator and playmaker. In his second year with the Wolves, Randle feels poised to have a similar impact to what he did in the playoffs and the second half of the season.
Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid are also just entering their true primes. The Wolves continuity will be an advantage, and this core is talented enough to compete at the highest level.
As for the Gobert piece of this team, while he took a step back offensively, his defense remained stellar last year. The Wolves have enough offense to make up for Gobert's possible struggles, and they mainly count on him for defense. Unless Gobert completely falls off a cliff offensively, his play shouldn't be a concern for Minnesota's title hopes.
Point guard will undoubtedly be a swing factor for the Wolves
After laying out the case, for the Wolves to remain contenders, it would be dishonest if I didn't discuss the main swing factor with this team. That, of course, is point guard play. While there's reason for optimism that Gobert can maintain his level of play at 33, Conley, who turns 38 this October, could take another step back. Notably, the Ohio State product is coming off a season where he averaged a career low in points (8.2) and minutes (24.7).
As an aging small guard, it's possible that Conley could take another step back offensively and/or not be able to sustain his play through a grueling season and playoffs. The Wolves will be counting on second-year guard Rob Dillingham to solve this point guard problem.
Undoubtedly, Dillingham is a gifted three-level scorer with elite speed and high-level passing chops. However, he didn't play much as a rookie, and there are concerns with his size (6-foot-1) and slender frame. Dillingham is certainly a swing factor in the Wolves' title hopes.
I happen to be optimistic about Dillingham's ability to contribute to winning basketball, given his gifts as a creator. Still, the lack of experience is a concern, and at 20, he could have some growing pains. Perhaps Edwards' improvements as a playmaker allow him to take on a lead guard role. If Dillingham proves not to be ready for a bigger role, Tim Connelly will certainly look to the trade market to improve the team.
Overall, the concerns with the Wolves giving three young players bigger roles and some of their aging core players are valid. Regardless, things are better than some might think, and there's plenty of evidence that this team is still a contender.