The Minnesota Timberwolves had a decision to make last summer, with multiple players hitting free agency and due for a pay raise. They chose to bring back Julius Randle and Naz Reid, letting two-way wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker walk in free agency. Looking back, that appears to have been a mistake.
At the time, the rationale was fairly easy to track. Given the large sums of money owed to Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, the Timberwolves decided that they needed to stay under the second tax apron. That would allow them to avoid the most punitive restrictions on their spending and team-building.
Functionally, that meant choosing one of their three primary free agents not to bring back. Randle was the obvious top choice, as his secondary scoring and playmaking were crucial parts of the Timberwolves' success the season before. From there, the team felt that they could better replace Alexander-Walker's role with young up-and-coming players on their roster, whereas Naz Reid would be irreplaceable. They chose to re-sign Reid, and Alexander-Walker signed with the Atlanta Hawks.
Every major development since that decision has seemed to shout that the Wolves made the wrong call.
The Timberwolves were wrong to re-sign Naz Reid
Their first mistake was the sheer volume of the contract that they handed to Naz Reid: five years, $125 million. It was a surprisingly strong offer to a player who was always going to come off of the bench for the Timberwolves. It was also significantly higher than Alexander-Walker's four-year, $60 million deal.
Reid has not lived up to his contract thus far; he has been fine as a scorer, and his numbers are right in line with his career norms, but that totals out to a player who should be making much less than Reid is. One of the great challenges for the Timberwolves this season has been finding lineups that work given the lack of rim protection that Reid is providing as the backup center. While he has done better as of late, it hasn't been up to the standards of the contract that he signed.
The second development has been the play of Nickeil Alexander-Walker in Atlanta. He has elevated into the starting lineup for the Hawks and has taken a major step forward as an on-ball player, scoring, shooting and passing at career-best levels. He is averaging 20.5 points per game as the secondary offensive engine beside Jalen Johnson.
Given that he is also an impact defender at the point of attack and on the wing, "NAW" looks like the player who should have been paid $25 million per season rather than the $15 million he received. He has leveled up, allowing the Hawks to trade Trae Young with confidence and making the Wolves look bad for letting him walk.
It would be one thing for Alexander-Walker to be playing well and the Timberwolves to have correctly identified a player able to step into his role from last year.
The reality is that they have not; Terrence Shannon Jr. tanks the offense when he steps onto the court, while Rob Dillingham hasn't been able to establish himself as an NBA player. Jaylen Clark remains a defensive specialist. The replacement just isn't there.
Minnesota is still a good team, but they would be in much better shape if they had chosen Alexander-Walker over Reid. Perhaps that owuld have meant keeping Luka Garza, who is balling out for the Boston Celtics; perhaps it would have meant more minutes for rookie center Joan Beringer, who has shown real flashes in his first season.
However the Wolves built the rotation out, the final product would have been better for having Nickaeil Alexander-Walker in it. As he excels for the Hawks on a steal of a contract, the Timberwolves are left wondering: what if they had kept him?
And that regret may only continue to grow as the playoffs come ever closer.