The Minnesota Timberwolves are trying to catch up to the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. While that's the main goal, what can't be lost is that the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets are all trying to accomplish this as well. Until proven otherwise, the Timberwolves are in this second tier of Western Conference contenders.
However, I feel comfortable that they will separate themselves from this group. In particular, the Wolves' two-way balance gives them a clear advantage over the Nuggets and Lakers.
All three of the Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Lakers will be elite offenses. There's no denying that. Denver ranked first in offensive rating last season, per Cleaning the Glass. With Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, they'll always be at least a top-10 defense. The Lakers were ninth in ORTG, with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and a team with positive spacing; this trend will continue.
While the Wolves ranked outside the top 10 in ORTG last season, their offensive ceiling is as high as anyone's in the league with LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards.
The Timberwolves' defense is an advantage over the Nuggets and Lakers
Where Minnesota can separate itself from the Nuggets and the Lakers is on defense. Yes, Ball is a negative defender, but he won't derail the Wolves' elite defensive infrastructure.
The Wolves have ranked top 10 in defense every year since trading for Rudy Gobert. He is still one of the five best defenders in the sport. As long as he stays healthy, the Wolves will have a top-10 defense. Jaden McDaniels also has a case to be the league's best point-of-attack defender. That's an elite combination. And outside of Ball, the Wolves have a ton of positive defenders. Simply put, the Timberwolves are poised to be both a top-10 offense and defense.
Now, let's compare that to the Nuggets. In the playoffs, McDaniels famously claimed that all of the Nuggets' players are bad defenders. He was vindicated for this bold claim, as the Nuggets couldn't stay in front of the Wolves in the playoffs. With a lack of on-ball stoppers, several negative defenders, and a poor rim protector, the Nuggets' defense simply isn't good. They ranked 21st in DRTG last season, the worst of any playoff team.
This offseason, their defense got somehow worse, as they lost Peyton Watson, their best defender (who wasn't available in the playoffs), and replaced him with DeMar DeRozan, who is undeniably a negative defender. The Nuggets could have the league's best offense, and they'll be a playoff team, but as we saw last year, that won't matter if they can't guard anyone in the playoffs.
In fairness, I don't think the Lakers' defense will be as bad as Denver's. They were already marginally better than the Nuggets' defense last season, ranking 18th in DRTG. Adding Walker Kessler gives them a major boost in the rim protection department. Are they positioned to be a top-10 level defense like the Wolves, though? I don't think so.
Kessler is a skilled rim protector, but he hasn't proven to be a transformational one like Gobert. It's also unclear who will guard opposing stars. Maybe Quentin Grimes? But he's offensively slanted. Ziaire Williams is intriguing but unproven in a winning context. Matisse Thybulle is a skilled defender, but he's offensively limited. Finally, the backcourt of Luka and Reaves is flawed defensively.
My point is the Lakers have a lot of defensive questions to answer.
To win a championship, elite two-way balance is typically a prerequisite. In the playoffs, you need to be able to win multiple styles of games. The Timberwolves clearly check this box, which gives them an advantage over their Western Conference foes, the Lakers and Nuggets.
Without a doubt, Minnesota's two-way balance will maximize its chances of being a top-four seed and going on a deep playoff run.
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