Undeniably, the most challenging aspect of the Minnesota Timberwolves' first-round series against the Denver Nuggets will be finding a way to limit Nikola Jokic. You can only limit or contain Jokic; there's truly no stopping the three-time MVP.
In large part due to Jokic's greatness, the Nuggets ranked first in offensive rating this season. When Jokic is on the court, Denver has an ungodly 128.6 offensive rating.
You really have to pick your poison when guarding Jokic. Do you guard him one-on-one when he's capable of erupting for 50 points on any given night? Or do you force his teammates to beat you, knowing that he'll make the right read whenever he's doubled? This is a tricky dilemma, especially considering the 3-point shooting around Jokic has improved this season.
The Wolves have a few options to defend Jokic, but frankly, none of them seem ideal. Needless to say, this makes pulling off a first-round upset an uphill battle.
The Wolves' success against Jokic in 2024 is difficult to replicate
When the Wolves upset the Nuggets in 2024, Jokic still had a great series, averaging 29 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 7.9 assists. Still, the Wolves held him to 51.7 percent from the field and 22.9 percent from beyond the arc, which proved to be enough to get the job done.
Karl-Anthony Towns was fantastic as the primary defender on Jokic. Notably, the Joker shot 43.6 percent with Towns as the closest defender.
This, in tandem with Rudy Gobert roaming around, gave the Wolves a pathway to success. However, this strategy might not be replicable for several reasons. Of course, Julius Randle is in place of Towns.
Given that he's three inches shorter than KAT and generally erratic on defense, it's fair to be skeptical of his chances against Jokic. Heck, even if Towns was still on the team, I would be doubtful that he could replicate this success against Jokic.
In the regular season, Jokic dominated the Wolves, averaging 35.8 points, 15 rebounds, and 11.3 assists. This included a 56-point outing on Christmas Night. Randle defended Jokic slightly more than Gobert. And unfortunately, he didn't perform well as Jokic shot 66.7 percent against him.
The other difficult factor for the Wolves is that the Nuggets' 3-point shooting has improved significantly since 2024. This year, the Nuggets ranked 11th in 3-pointers made per game, and first in 3-point percentage, but in 2023-24, they ranked 25th in made 3s and 10th in 3-point percentage.
As such, sagging off one of the Nuggets shooters to double Jokic is a far less effective strategy than it was two seasons ago.
The Timberwolves will need to mix things up
What I would expect Chris Finch and the Timberwolves to do is throw a little bit of everything at Jokic. Randle and Gobert will, of course, have their share of on-ball reps against him. However, Kyle Anderson is another clear candidate to defend Jokic, especially during the non-Rudy minutes.
Notably, Anderson wasn't on the team during the Wolves' four regular season games, so we don't know what to fully expect from him. Regardless, his blend of size, strength, and IQ makes him a servicable option on Jokic. I would be curious to see Anderson on Jokic with Jaden McDaniels roaming as a help-side defender.
While McDaniels is a fantastic defender, his slender frame and elite point of attack defense make it unlikely that he'll guard Jokic much as the primary defender. Ayo Dosunmu strikes me as a sneaky defender on Jokic. Last playoffs, we saw Jokic struggle against the smaller Alex Caruso -- Jokic shot just 33.3 percent when defended by Caruso.
Similar to Caruso, Dosunmu is a smaller festy defender with impressive versatility. Who knows if it will work, but Dosunmu on Jokic could be a nice wrinkle for the Wolves.
Simply put, the Wolves' best chance of containing Jokic is mixing up matchups and coverages. It might feel like the Wolves are living on a prayer, but that's the best chance they have to limit Jokic.