The Minnesota Timberwolves have a Mike Conley problem. And unfortunately, it has no easy answers.
Conley has been exactly what the Timberwolves needed over the past two years since he arrived in Minnesota. The Wolves pivoted away from the D'Angelo Russell era with aplomb, landing the veteran Conley and immediately improving their offense. He has been a linchpin of a team that was a win away from the No. 1 seed last season and upset the defending champion Denver Nuggets en route to the Western Conference Finals.
Mike Conley is struggling
That linchpin is now slipping free, however, and the consequences could be disastrous. Conley is having his worst season in quite some time, perhaps of his entire career: he is averaging only 8.7 points per game, a career-low, and shooting a frigid 34.8 percent from the field -- including just 30.6 percent from 2-point range, both also career-worst numbers.
The culprit for the shooting slump is not entirely clear. It could certainly be age; Mike Conley is 37 years old and playing his 18th season in the NBA. He is one of just four players remaining from his draft class (and the only one to never win a title; Jeff Green, Kevin Durant and Al Horford all have one now, Green and Horford in the last two seasons). He ranks 8th among active players in both games played and minutes, and that's without counting another 93 playoff games.
It may also be that Conley is still recovering from a wrist injury that has plagued him for months, preventing him from even "handling a basketball" for most of the offseason. It may be that as the season goes on he will shake off the rust, get more comfortable with the wrist injury and regain his shooting form. Can the Timberwolves afford to keep waiting?
The Western Conference is a war zone this season, with 12 teams who all expect to make the playoffs when only eight teams can clear that bar. The Oklahoma City Thunder are a juggernaut, the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies are electric to start the season, and the Timberwolves at 14-11 are just two games ahead of 12th.
Is it time to for the Timberwolves to make a move? Do they need to pivot away from Conley, who is the entrenched starter at point guard? That's a fine question to ask, but there is another one that has to be answered first: what are they pivoting to?
The Timberwolves don't have a replacement plan
There isn't another player on the roster ready to step into his starting point guard role. When Donte DiVincenzo was acquired just before the season many analysts suggested that he could operate as a backup point guard for the team; however, swapping out DiVincenzo for Conley in the starting lineup gives you a group that has been outscored by 21 points per 100 possessions, one of the worst such marks for a lineup in the entire NBA.
What about Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who was billed as something of a point guard when coming into the NBA, even if his role in Minnesota has been as more of a wing? That lineups of Alexander-Walker alongside the other starters does have a positive net rating, but the offensive is anemic, and largely driven by cold opponent shooting on defense. It's not a group that can thrive offensively.
The internal answer to replacing Conley is rookie Rob Dillingham, the No. 8 pick in this past June's draft. He has played just a handful of minutes with the other starters, with shooting numbers wildly skewing the results. He inject energy into the Wolves when he takes the court, but he also turns the ball over and is not yet ready to play a larger role as either a passer or a defender. When Dillingham is on the court without Conley overall, the Timberwolves have a -13.3 net rating.
Could the Timberwolves look outside the organization instead? Perhaps, but the answers out there are not lining up either, especially given the limited assets that the Wolves have on hand. Could they have been involved in the Dennis Schroder trade? Perhaps, but that ship has now sailed and Schroder is on a Western Conference rival instead. Will another reliable point guard option hit the market?
There are a few options out there. Would the Toronto Raptors be open to moving Davion Mitchell? Can they trust Collin Sexton from the Utah Jazz to run the point? Can they afford to match the salary of Malcolm Brogdon? Each potential trade comes with dizzying financial implications on top of needing to find compensation.
Here is the difficulty in pulling the pug on Mike Conley: the Timberwolves are still really good when he plays. Overall, the Timberwolves have a +7.6 net rating when he is on the court, vs just a +2.4 mark when he is off. The Wolves' starting lineup has played 593 possessions together per Cleaning the Glass and has a +9.4 net rating in those minutes. Only four 5-man lineups in the league have logged at least 200 minutes, and the Wolves' fivesome is the best of that group.
What's more, when Conley is completely unavailable the Wolves' offense has cratered and they have lost every game. Minnesota is 0-4 this season in games Conley doesn't play and 14-7 when he does.
What should the Timberwolves do? Reduce Conley's playing time and see if Dillingham is ready for a larger role? Do they swap DiVincenzo into the starting lineup and see if that group can click? Do they go after someone in a trade to give them more options in the backcourt? Or do they sit tight, riding their recent winning streak and hoping Conley comes around?
The Timberwolves have a good team, with Anthony Edwards as confident as ever and the overall roster strong enough to make another run if things fall into place. Can they afford to wait on Conley? Can they afford not to?
The time is quickly coming where they have to make a decision.