One of the key factors in the Minnesota Timberwolves' chances in the Western Conference Finals is how Anthony Edwards responds to the Oklahoma City Thunder's elite defense. Game 1 saw Edwards struggle, scoring 18 points on 5-13 shooting, while also recording three assists and four turnovers. The Timberwolves lost 114-88. OKC's defense thrives on creating turnovers, and they did so in Game 1, forcing 18 turnovers. It will be imperative that Edwards makes a positive impact as a playmaker for the Timberwolves to win this series.
Edwards' assist-to-turnover ratio is key
The Thunder's defense is packing the paint and collapsing on Edwards. With lengthy and elite perimeter defenders, including Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, it's difficult for Edwards to score.
However, it opens up opportunities for him as a playmaker. Unfortunately, in Game 1, Edwards struggled to make a positive impact as a playmaker. Edwards' assist-to-turnover ratio of 0.75 in Game 1 is far below his playoff average of 2.3. Edwards' playoff assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.3 is a significant uptick from his regular-season average of 1.44. He also only had seven potential assists in Game 1, which is below his 9.3 playoff average.
In the regular season, the Wolves had an 8-10 record when Edwards committed five or more turnovers. Taking care of the ball is key for the Timberwolves as a team in this series, and it starts with their star. Overall, Ant taking care of the ball while upping his assists will be crucial for the Timberwolves' NBA Finals chances.
Throughout the playoffs, Edwards has been playmaking at the highest level of his career. His assist average has increased from 4.5 in the regular season to 5.6 in the playoffs. Moreover, in the playoffs, Edwards has notched seven or more assists four times. In the playoffs, Minnesota has an 8-0 record when Edwards has four or more assists, and they are 0-3 when he has fewer than three assists. Edwards' flashes of playmaking throughout the playoffs bode well for him and the Timberwolves' chances of getting back on track this series.
The Timberwolves are 8-0 this postseason when Anthony Edwards has 4 or more assists.
— Kyle Theige (@KyleTheige) May 21, 2025
The Timberwolves are 0-3 this postseason when Anthony Edwards has 3 or less assists.
Can Ant elevate his playmaking against this OKC defense? And if so, can his teammates make open shots?
Edwards needs to attack the paint more
Edwards is known as one of the league's best drivers, which also opens up looks for his teammates. However, he only had seven drives in Game 1, which is a significant decrease from his playoff average of 16.2 drives. Of course, the Thunder's stifling defense makes it challenging for Edwards to drive. However, Edwards can't abandon what makes him great.
If Edwards can make decisive decisions while driving and his teammates can hit shots, the Timberwolves will be in a good spot. Ultimately, if Edwards makes the right reads on an increased number of drives, his assist numbers will likely skyrocket, and Minnesota will have a better chance of winning the series.