ESPN rolled out its annual NBA Summer Forecast over the course of the week. On Wednesday, the projected standings for both the Eastern and Western Conferences were presented. The Minnesota Timberwolves were predicted to finish with a 51-31 record in 2025-26, good for the fourth-best record in the West. Well-respected ESPN NBA insider Tim Bontemps believes that the Wolves may fall short of that mark.
Tim Bontemps believes Timberwolves will fall short of 51 wins
On Friday, an article was posted on ESPN where Bontemps lists five teams that he believes will exceed expectations, and five that will fall short of them. The Timberwolves are listed in the fall short category.
"This is a Timberwolves team that lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency this summer, requiring youngsters such as Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark to pick up a much bigger load while still leaning heavily on Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, Bontemps wrote. If either aging veteran misses any time, the Timberwolves don't have a clear answer to replace them. Naz Reid, who got a five-year, $125 million deal to come back as a free agent this summer, isn't strong enough defensively to make up for Gobert's absence, and last year's No. 8 pick, Rob Dillingham, remains a huge question mark in his ability to eventually take over for Conley."
It has been talked about ad nauseam this offseason on how the younger players in Dillingham, Shannon Jr., and Clark would need to step into larger roles this season. While I don’t expect first round pick Joan Beringer to receive a full-time rotational role as a 19-year-old (turns 19 on November 6), I do believe Minnesota could start him and have him play 15-18 minutes in games that Gobert is forced to miss. That would allow the starting lineup to remain having a defensive-minded player in the middle.
While Dillingham may remain a huge question mark, it’s becoming fairly evident that Conley’s career is winding down. Turning 38 years old on October 11, the 18-year veteran shot a miserable 30.2% from the field in last season’s playoffs. His minutes are expected to further decrease, and Minnesota can turn to Donte DiVincenzo for small stints to play the point if Dillingham isn’t ready for large minutes yet. The Timberwolves also continue to be linked to Malcolm Brogdon and Bones Hyland.
Continuity can be quite beneficial for Minnesota
A 51-win season would be two more than the Timberwolves won last season. That came with a 22-21 start, though, meaning they went 27-12 in their last 39 outings. A trade very late in the offseason to bring in Julius Randle and DiVincenzo made it take time for the team to fully jell.
Continuity should be a plus for a Minnesota team that ended so strongly and returns every player of importance from last season, minus Alexander-Walker. Also, Anthony Edwards just turned 24 years old, so even further improvement in his game is certainly possible.
Bontemps brings up fair concerns, but it can be said for nearly every team that there would be issues if a key starter is forced to miss time. The greater concern may be that on paper, Western Conference contenders such as the Rockets and Nuggets have improved. Then, of course, there is the Thunder, who are returning all of their key players from last season’s championship run.