Up until last year, Julius Randle had the stigma of being a playoff underachiever. The three-time All-Star was extremely inefficient against postseason opposition while with the New York Knicks.
In his first season with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Randle seemed to reverse that trend, particularly in the first two rounds. Unfortunately, he has struggled against the better defenses this season, and that continued in Saturday’s blowout loss at the hands of the Detroit Pistons.
Without a doubt, if this trend continues in the playoffs, Minnesota will have a difficult time reaching its upside.
With Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Ayo Dosunmu unavailable on Saturday, much was needed from Randle for Minnesota to have a chance. Julius wasn’t nearly good enough, and neither were the Timberwolves as a whole.
Randle finished the outing 2-of-13 with four turnovers. This was the first time that the Wolves and Pistons had squared up this season, and they will do so again on Thursday.
Julius Randle hasn't performed as well against the best defenses
Per Cleaning the Glass, the five best defenses this season have been the Oklahoma City Thunder, Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics, and Houston Rockets. Overall, this year against those squads, Randle’s numbers haven’t been all that pretty.
In four games against the Thunder, he is 21-of-60 from the field with 74 total points. Randle shot 17-of-39 and scored 54 points in three outings against the Spurs. The Celtics have limited him to 9-of-27 shooting and 25 points in two contests. Houston has seen the Timberwolves twice, and Randle has gone 25-of-52 from the field with 63 points. Now, against Detroit, Julius is 2-of-13 with 11 points.
Add it all up, and you’ll see that Randle is shooting just 38.7 percent from the field against top-five defenses and averaging 18.9 points.
That’s a stark difference from how he has fared against everyone else. In his 62 games against teams outside the five best defenses, Randle is shooting 49.3 percent from the field while averaging 21.3 points.
Now, if you did this exercise with most players, their field goal accuracy would also decline when they play the best defenses. There is a reason those teams are ranked near, or at, the top.
Still, Randle never looked comfortable on Saturday. Randle's 3-point shot has been off much of the year. The Timberwolves will almost certainly have to encounter one of the better defenses in the postseason if they go far. With one game remaining apiece against the Pistons and Rockets, Randle will have two more chances to improve his numbers against top-notch defensive teams.
Ultimately, Randle's play against elite defense remains a clear red flag as we approach the playoffs.