Coming out of the All-Star break, it seems like all eyes are on Julius Randle when discussing the Minnesota Timberwolves' ability to reach their ceiling. This makes sense given that Randle is the team's second-best player but also someone who struggles with consistency.
He does have some frustrating moments on offense, including poor turnovers and settling for jumpers. Regardless, his offense has overall been a clear net positive for the team, and often something that goes underrated by Wolves fans.
To me, his defensive engagement is the most important thing to watch for the rest of the year and this could swing things for the Wolves.
Randle's defense is crucial for the Timberwolves
To put it kindly, Randle's defense has been lackluster. He has been inattentive off the ball, often gets caught ball watching, and has been slow to make closeouts. He has also provided zero rim protection in the non-Rudy Gobert minutes, which has been a massive hindrance.
According to Basketball Index, Randle ranks in the 2nd percentile for rim deterrence and the 33rd percentile for help defense. Overall, the Timberwolves are 11 points worse per 100 possessions on defense with Randle on the court. Furthermore, with Randle on the court and Gobert off the court, the Wolves have an atrocious 121.4 defensive rating.
Randle's poor defense has hurt the Wolves at various points of the season. The Wolves' defense is still overall in a great spot. However, if they continue to get poor defensive production out of their two best players (yes, Anthony Edwards' defense has also been subpar), it will cost them in a big way.
The Wolves can't simply count on Randle (and Edwards) to "flip the switch" come playoff time. If this poor defense continues, the Wolves could find themselves in an undesirable playoff seed. Currently, the Wolves are just 1.5 games ahead of the Play-In Tournament. Falling into the Play-In Tournament would be a disastrous outcome for the team, and if they slip in the standings, it will likely be connected to poor defensive engagement from the Wolves stars.
Conversely, if Randle and Edwards can level up their defensive intensity, the Wolves could surge up the standings. Undoubtedly, securing a top-four seed and home-court advantage could change the trajectory of the Wolves' ability to compete for a title.
Thankfully, there's evidence to suggest this could happen. While Randle's engagement has wavered, at his best, he can be a two-way force, and on the ball, his defense has remained solid. Notably, Randle ranks in the 85th percentile for perimeter isolation defense via Basketball Index. Last playoffs, we saw Randle play fantastic defense against LeBron James, and earlier this season, he locked up Victor Wembanyama.
Again, though, Randle's off-ball defense will always be the bigger story.
Randle needs to find a way to impact the game when he has an inevitable down scoring night. Oftentimes, Randle's playmaking helps in this regard, but there's no doubt that his defense must improve, and this would allow him to be a true net positive even if he is struggling to score.
For the rest of the season, my eyes will be glued to Randle's defense as it's something that can truly change the course of Minnesota's season.