In the fiercely competitive landscape that is the NBA, player performance is often analyzed with a fine-toothed comb. For the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team that is experiencing an unprecedented wave of success, most of the focus has been on what has been going right.
However, if they are to achieve their goal of contending, and ultimately winning an NBA championship, several key areas need to be addressed.
In this analysis, we will dive into what can be improved for each of the Timberwolves' starters, and define how it can unlock their championship potential.
Anthony Edwards
Turnovers
Anthony Edwards is undeniably having a career year, averaging career highs in points per game (26.3), assists per game (5.3), field goal percentage (47.1%), and 3-point field goal percentage (38.6%) for the Timberwolves. However, amidst the impressive performances, there is one area that clearly stands out as needing addressing: his turnovers.
Edwards has the 10th worst turnover percentage (TOV%) on drives at 7.3%, 17th worst TOV% on isolation plays at 10.3%, and, most concerning, third worst TOV% in the clutch at 0.4%. This is fine when the Timberwolves are up by 30-plus in the first quarter against the Blazers, but if they want to be taken seriously come playoff time, they will need to prioritize ball security.
When the games get tight, the Timberwolves are largely relying on their 22-year-old 2-time All-Star to bring them home. Edwards' usage goes up from 31.2 to 34.3 in the clutch, which makes it even more paramount for Edwards to clean up his decision-making.
Another guy that needs to improve decision-making is up next.
Karl-Anthony Towns
Offensive Fouls
Karl-Anthony Towns, a pivotal figure for the Timberwolves, has been driving to the basket at a higher rate than ever before. He is averaging 11.1 drives per 75 possessions, far surpassing his previous high of 7.6 per possession.
Utilizing his pump fake to draw in defenders before slashing to the hoop, Towns has made a living on drives this season and boasts the fourth-highest points per possession (PPP) on drives in the league (minimum 300 drives).
Player | PPP on Drives | Total Drives |
|---|---|---|
Joel Embiid | 0.977 | 302 |
Jaren Jackson Jr | 0.925 | 534 |
Jayson Tatum | 0.877 | 462 |
Karl-Anthony Towns | 0.805 | 523 |
Alperen Sengun | 0.781 | 384 |
On the surface, these numbers seem to indicate all is well. However, when we look deeper, we find that despite the high efficiency, he still has the worst turnover rate (TOV%) on drives at 10.3% (minimum 300 drives). Additionally, he finds himself tied for fifth in the NBA in offensive fouls, averaging 3.3 per game.
This propensity for fouls, especially offensive ones, is a concern that opponents are likely to exploit, especially during the playoffs. In Towns' previous playoff experience, it became clear the book was out on how to slow him down: by attempting to get him into foul trouble early.
Jaden McDaniels
Rebounding
Jaden McDaniels has never been known for his rebounding prowess. However, with his length and generally high motor, he should be putting himself in a better position to secure the boards. His rebounding numbers are down this year across the board.
Season | Offensive Rebounds Per Game | Defensive Rebounds Per Game | Total Rebounds Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
20-21 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
21-22 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 |
22-23 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.9 |
23-24 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
On a per-36-minute basis, the fourth-year forward is averaging a measly 3.3 rebounds per game. In fewer minutes in years prior, McDaniels averaged more rebounds per game.
Of 118 players taller than 6-foot-7 to average at least 20 minutes per contest, McDaniels ranks 111th. His lack of rebounding is concerning, especially for a player of his size and athleticism.
The Timberwolves are 26th in Offensive Rebounds per game at 9.3. While much of this is a tactical choice by Chris Finch to limit opponents' transition opportunities, McDaniels still has the potential to be more opportunistic on the glass. Increasing offensive rebounds is one way to bolster an offense that for much of the year has been inconsistent at best.
Mike Conley Jr.
Midrange and Floater Efficiency
Overall, Mike Conley is having his best year shooting the rock, with an effective field goal percentage of 58.8% and a 3-point field goal percentage of 42.2%.
However, his performance has dropped in both midrange pull-ups and floaters. He is shooting 41.1% on midrange pull-ups this season, placing him in only the 55th percentile. This is a stark contrast to last season, where he shot 45.7% and was positioned comfortably in the 76th percentile.
When it comes to floaters, a shot that has historically been a reliable weapon in his arsenal, he is shooting a mere 29.6%, the worst of his career.
Season | Floater FG% | Mid Range Pull-Up FG% |
|---|---|---|
20-21 | 45.3% | 42.9% |
21-22 | 39.9% | 42.0% |
22-23 | 42.0% | 45.7% |
23-24 | 29.6% | 41.1% |
A vital component of Conley's gameplay involves navigating pick-and-roll scenarios with Gobert, where Conley is often met with a wide-open mid-range or floater, especially when defenders prioritize Gobert's roll to the basket. The decision to keep it himself is one he needs to continue to make, as it keeps his defenders honest. If the efficiency improves, it will make the Gobert/Conley Jr. pick and roll even more deadly.
Rudy Gobert
Free Throw Percentage
A recurring issue in Gobert's career has been his vulnerability to the "Hack-a-Gobert" strategy, where opponents deliberately foul him to take advantage of his free throw shooting struggles. It is easy to forget during the regular season, but in the playoffs when every point is do-or-die, teams are more willing to employ this strategy.
The most effective counter to this tactic is obviously free throw accuracy, ideally shooting at a rate that surpasses the average points per possession, thereby rendering the tactic useless.
Gobert is shooting 64.5% from the free-throw line this season, and while Gobert's free-throw percentage is not nearly as bad as Shaquille O'Neal's when the "Hack-a-Shaq" strategy was founded (53%), it can still cause problems, especially in tight games as the pressure ratchets up. The French big man shot 69% from the stripe just two seasons ago in 2021-22, a figure that would further limit the Hack-a-Gobert strategy.
If Gobert starts slumping from the line in the playoffs, Finch may be forced to take him off the court for a spell, a scary proposition, as the Wolves are over 10 points worse in net rating when he is off the court vs on (0.58 and 10.69 respectively).
If the Timberwolves can address even a few of these flaws, anything is on the table. Player development has been very strong under the new regime, a trend that, if continued, could pave the way for the team's ascent to the top of the NBA.