There's a ton of understandable discussion about whether the Minnesota Timberwolves have caught up to the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder with their aggressive moves this offseason. I think they certainly moved closer to this tier. Still, they'll likely once again be neck and neck with the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, and Los Angeles Lakers in the regular season. Notably, these four teams were separated by just five games.
Whether it's this close again around or not, barring a surprise, the Wolves will face one of these three teams in the first-round again. With that in mind, let's rank these three teams in terms of who poses the biggest threat to Minnesota in a playoff setting.
3. Houston Rockets
On some level, the Rockets could pose a tricky matchup given their frontcourt size and physicality. However, I have major problems with their roster construction.
A lot of these issues center around Alperen Sengun. He isn't a floor spacer or a rim protector. Remember how the Wolves dominated Nikola Jokic around the rim in the playoffs last year? With LaMelo Ball in the fold, this strategy would only be more effective, since Minnesota has an elite guard who thrives at cooking centers in the pick-and-roll.
On offense, his fit alongside Amen Thompson clogs up the driving lanes and gives opposing teams two non-shooters to disrespect. Best believe the Wolves' defense would find a way to exploit that. Even though the Rockets ranked top-10 in both offensive and defensive rating, a closer inspection highlights real issues.
Last season, the Rockets' offense collapsed in clutch games and the playoffs due to this flaw. One could argue Fred VanVleet's steady playmaking could solve this flaw, but frankly, I don't think he'll be enough. At the end of the day, Houston has major problems that the Wolves could expose.
2. Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets have a fair case to be lower after the Timberwolves dismantled them in six games in April.
Denver did nothing to improve its subpar defense and athleticism this offseason, despite the Wolves exposing these roster flaws. Signing DeMar DeRozan might give them some more offensive juice and an extra layer outside of the Jokic-Jamal Murray two-man game. He makes their defense even worse, though. Peyton Watson (who missed the playoffs) is also a critical loss to their defense.
In a playoff setting, the Wolves would have no problem hunting Denver's team of bad defenders (shout-out Jaden McDaniels). Furthermore, LaMelo gives the Wolves more elements to pressure the Nuggets' defense.
While the Wolves have their number, and I'd certainly favor them in a series, Jokic is still a top-three player in the world. Yes, Rudy Gobert shut him down, and the whole team exposed his defense, but there's no better player on this list than Jokic, and to me, that matters. Plus, the Nuggets are an offensive juggernaut. Even though the Wolves routinely have success against them, shutting down these guys isn't easy in any sense of the word.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Look, I'd still take the Wolves over the Lakers, but I do think LA has the most paths to making things difficult for Minnesota. While the Timberwolves have a stellar perimeter defense led by McDaniels, dealing with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves is tricky. Despite losing LeBron James, I also believe that this roster makes a lot more sense around Luka.
Walker Kessler gives him the high-end rim protector and lob threat he needs. Additionally, they have plenty of spacing and off-ball players. There are some clear similarities between this Lakers squad and the 2024 Dallas Mavericks.
Now, the Lakers do have some clear flaws that would cost them against the Wolves. Most notably, they don't have a high-end on-ball stopper (having fun guarding Anthony Edwards and Ball). Likewise, they have plenty of huntable defenders, including Luka and Reaves.
The Timberwolves don't have a flaw as glaring as the Lakers' on-ball defense, and thus I'd give them the edge. Regardless, the Lakers are a more complete roster than the Nuggets or Rockets, and they could give Minnesota some problems in a possible playoff matchup.
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