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Recent NBA history should temper expectations of a Timberwolves' championship

Not to be the bearer of bad news, but teams usually don't win a championship after such a busy offseason...
May 15, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) looks on against the San Antonio Spurs in the first half during game six of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
May 15, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) looks on against the San Antonio Spurs in the first half during game six of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While the Minnesota Timberwolves have retained many players from last season’s roster, it’s evident that they are a much different team. To acquire the star lead guard they’ve wanted for years, they had to sacrifice some size.

Out go Julius Randle and Naz Reid; in comes LaMelo Ball. Those changes alone ensure that the Timberwolves will have a different play style than they did over the previous few seasons, when they had a lot of frontcourt depth.

While the ceiling of their roster looks to be very high, it may be difficult to win a title in Year 1 together.

Continuity is often important

Recently, the Timberwolves also signed Jonathan Kuminga. That means they will have two new players in their starting lineup compared with last season, as long as everyone is available. Let’s look at how that compares with some of the recent championship-winning teams.

Of course, last season saw the Knicks end their 53-year championship drought. They brought back the same starting lineup as the previous season. They had a strong foundation, and it's just an added bonus that Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart had been teammates at Villanova.

The 2024–25 Oklahoma City Thunder added one new starter from the previous year: Isaiah Hartenstein. The other four had all been on the team for at least three years, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort, both of whom were in their sixth season with OKC.

The 2023–24 Boston Celtics did have two new starters. They also had their two stars, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, in their seventh year as teammates. Kristaps Porzingis missed a large chunk of time—including the playoffs—and Al Horford took his place. Horford was in his third year with Boston, not even including his stint with the club from 2016–17 through 2018–19.

The 2022–23 Denver Nuggets mostly had the same starting five, although Jamal Murray missed all of the previous season with a torn ACL. The main starting five for the 2021–22 Golden State Warriors were all on the team in 2020–21, even if Jordan Poole mostly came off the bench that year before becoming a more frequent starter.

You really have to go back to the 2019–20 Los Angeles Lakers to find a team that went through changes as significant as the Timberwolves. That Lakers team added Anthony Davis, who at minimum was a top-ten player then. Ball isn’t quite the level of player Davis was at that time, even if they play completely different positions.

Yes, Timberwolves fans want to see their favorite team win their first-ever NBA championship—as well as make their first-ever NBA Finals.

There’s a nonzero chance they can do so next season, but they may have a better chance in 2027–28 if the roster remains mostly unchanged and they have a solid 2027 postseason run without flaming out early.

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