Heading into the Western Conference Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder are heavy favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Nevertheless, the Timberwolves have a solid chance to pull off an upset, and they have a few clear advantages. One of those advantages is Minnesota's defense, specifically its ability to contain the Thunder's 3-point shooting.
According to GeniusIQ, the Timberwolves ran zone defense for 52 possessions against OKC in the regular season, holding them to 0.81 points per possession. The Timberwolves' zone defense could be a massive factor in this series, especially since the Thunder have struggled to shoot in the playoffs. Let's dive into why the Timberwolves' defense could help them contain the Thunder's offense and help them pull off an upset.
The Timberwolves' defense is perfectly built to contain the Thunder's offense
During the playoffs, OKC has struggled to shoot, hitting just 31.7 percent on 39 3-point attempts per game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, and Jalen Williams are all shooting below 30 percent from beyond the arc. Given the Thunder's struggles against Minnesota's zone defense in the regular season, their poor playoff shooting is likely to continue. Conversely, the Timberwolves are shooting 35 percent from 3 in the playoffs and were a top-five 3-point shooting team in the regular season. If Minnesota can win the 3-point battle, they'll have a strong chance to pull off an upset.
Additionally, the Timberwolves were 2-2 against the Thunder in the regular season. They aren't scared of the Thunder and have the defensive personnel to limit OKC's offense. This series features the top two defenses in the playoffs and projects to be a slugfest. In the regular season, the Thunder posted a 114.6 offensive rating, which is a 4.6 decline from their overall offensive rating.
With Rudy Gobert protecting the rim, along with Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards floating around the perimeter and paint, it's easy to see how this zone would cause problems for OKC. Nickeil Alexander-Walker off the bench will be another key factor for Minnesota, especially in containing his cousin, Shai.
The Timberwolves' length, size, and athleticism will disrupt the Thunder's offense. Minnesota can contain OKC on both the perimeter and the interior. The Nuggets don't have nearly the number of athletes or defenders as the Timberwolves. As a result, Minnesota will be a bigger challenge for OKC.
Between their zone and stifling man-to-man defense, the Timberwolves will have plenty of looks to throw at the Thunder. Ultimately, the Timberwolves have the ideal defense to contain OKC's offense, and their success in the regular season showcases this.