With nine games left in the regular season, it's clear that the Minnesota Timberwolves will play one of the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, or Denver Nuggets in the first round. Currently, though, the Wolves are trending to a first round matchup with the Nuggets, and that's less than ideal.
According to Basketball Reference, the Nuggets have a 77.6 percent chance of finishing as a four or five seed, while the Wolves have a 56.9 percent chance of finishing as a five or four seed. While it's not a guarantee, at this moment, the Nuggets are the most likely matchup for Minnesota.
The Timberwolves (and every other team in the West) are hoping for a matchup with the Rockets. Still, Houston is the most unlikely opponent for Minnesota.
To be clear, the Nuggets wouldn't be guaranteed to win against the Timberwolves. Nevertheless, they pose a much tougher matchup than the Rockets and Lakers.
The Nuggets are a difficult matchup for the Timberwolves
I admit, the Lakers have been playing better lately, posting a 9-1 record in their past 10 games. Furthermore, while both defenses are subpar overall, the Lakers rank ninth in March. Regardless, the Nuggets are better than they've shown in the regular season, and they'll always be a tough out in the playoffs.
Despite the Wolves having a considerable amount of success against the Nuggets over the past few years, it's never ideal to play the team led by Nikola Jokic.
Rudy Gobert is an elite rim protector, but the Wolves have struggled against Jokic. He is averaging 35.8 points, 15 rebounds, and 11.3 assists against Minnesota this season.
This isn't a knock on Rudy, but the Timberwolves' poor frontcourt defense outside of him is subpar. Even with the addition of Kyle Anderson and Julius Randle showing improved defensive engagement, Jokic is a brutal matchup for the Wolves (and frankly, every team).
The Nuggets have also increased their 3-point volume and efficiency this season, which makes containing Jokic harder. Furthermore, this gives Denver a better chance to match the Wolves' 3-point volume.
Conversely, last year's playoffs showed that the Timberwolves are capable of containing Luka Doncic. They did so by taking away his playmaking and frequently switching on pick-and-rolls.
I would never mistake the Nuggets for a defensive-minded team. However, in terms of having defenders to throw at Anthony Edwards, they have more options than the Lakers, whether that be Peyton Watson, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, or Spencer Jones. Marcus Smart is the Lakers' only quality perimeter stopper.
Now, a few weeks ago, we saw the Lakers "build a wall" against Ant, and he had one of his worst offensive performances. Nevertheless, in a playoff series, I doubt this strategy would hold up, especially given the Lakers' subpar individual defense.
All in all, it's clear that the Nuggets would pose the most difficult matchup for the Timberwolves and have the best chance of eliminating them in the first round.