Despite the Minnesota Timberwolves clearly being in the mix for Giannis Antetokounmpo, I haven't been sold on the possibility of a trade happening before Thursday. Simply put, there are a lot of moving parts, and the Wolves' lack of draft capital likely makes the inclusion of a third team necessary. This makes pulling off a mid-season trade super challenging.
However, if this saga drags into the offseason, the Wolves gain access to two tradable first-round picks, including this year's pick and their 2033 pick. The Wolves already have an impressive blend of win-now talent that could entice Milwaukee. Dare I say, the inclusion of two draft picks could put the Wolves in the driver's seat of the Giannis race. In any event, it increases their chances.
Whereas teams like the Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat are eyeing a move before the deadline, it's inherently beneficial to the Wolves if Milwaukee holds on to Giannis past Thursday's deadline. Now, stranger things have happened -- but my point is the Wolves' best chance to land Giannis is in the offseason, not at the deadline.
Crucially, reporting from Shams Charania and others has made it seem like the Bucks hanging onto Giannis past Thursday's deadline is a real possibility.
An offseason trade is easier for the Timberwolves
Beyond having more access to draft capital, an offseason trade is less risky than a midseason one. If the Wolves trade for Giannis at the deadline, they'll be gutting into their depth, and it will take time for Antetokounmpo to mesh with the rest of the core.
That's not to say it wouldn't work -- for my money, a Giannis-Anthony Edwards duo would be the most unstoppable pairing since Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry. Nevertheless, I doubt this would immediately result in a championship. With a trade in the offseason, though, the Wolves would have ample opportunities to build a logical supporting cast, and the team would be more comfortable with each other.
Another key advantage is that Giannis' interest in joining the Wolves appears to be genuine. As such, if this goes into the offseason, Giannis might try to force his way to Minnesota with just one year left on his contract.
I also think it's worth evaluating how much this team really needs a trade. Yes, it's Giannis who is a top-three player in the league. However, if the Wolves make another conference finals run, are we sure they need a trade of this magnitude? Plus, let us not forget Giannis will be 32 next season, and he has battled several injuries in recent years.
Now, if they flame out early in the playoffs and have a chance to add Giannis, by all means, you do it --but I'd like to get more data on this core.
To me, it's clear the Wolves' best chance of landing The Greek Freak and their best chance of maximizing a Giannis-Ant duo is if a deal happens in the summer, not this week.