NBA free agency begins on June 30th. The Minnesota Timberwolves face some diffcult decisions as they have three key free agents, including Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The versatile wing made $4.3 million this past season, but he will command a hefty payday on the open market. With Julius Randle and Naz Reid also being free agents, many are speculating that the Wolves won't be able to afford Alexander-Walker. Regardless, NAW's impact is immense, and it's possible the Wolves could re-sign him.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker's impact and value
Alexander-Walker averaged 9.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists on 43.8/38.1/78 shooting splits this past season. As an on-ball stopper, versatile defender, spot-up shooter, and secondary playmaker, NAW has a well-rounded skill set. In the Western Conference Finals, Alexander-Walker was a bright spot for the Wolves, averaging 12 points while netting 41.4 percent of his shots from beyond the arc.
Alexander-Walker's ability to impact winning basketball would appeal to competitive teams. Alternatively, a team with cap space could try to make a massive offer sheet similar to what Bruce Brown got in 2023. Overall, NAW will have plenty of suitors around the league. The expectation is that Alexander-Walker could be signed to the full mid-level exception, which is $14.1 million a year.
With an already high payroll and prioritizing deals for Randle and Reid, it's easy to see the Wolves getting priced out for NAW. After Chris Finch claimed that he expects the Wolves to re-sign Randle and Reid, but failed to mention Alexander-Walker, it seemed even more unlikely that the Wolves will retain him. The Wolves have Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark, who could slide into NAW's role.
Possible suitors
One confirmed suitor for Alexander-Walker is the Orlando Magic. This makes sense as he fits their defensive identity and provides much-needed shooting. However, the Magic will have to clear some more cap space to afford the full mid-level exception after trading for Desmond Bane.
The Brooklyn Nets have the league's most cap space, so they could also be in play for NAW. The Memphis Grizzlies also have some cap space. However, much of that will be dedicated to extending Jaren Jackson Jr. Furthermore, the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks are intriguing landing spots for Alexander-Walker. Nevertheless, other than Orlando, none of these teams are confirmed suitors.
Prediction
The writing is on the wall for Alexander-Walker to leave, and at this point, it would be surprising if he returns to Minnesota. If NAW does return, he would likely be turning down significant money elsewhere. While they don't have confirmed interest in Alexander-Walker, my prediction is that the Spurs will sign him to a three-year $42 million deal.
Alexander-Walker's defense and 3-point shooting make him an ideal fit next to Victor Wembanyama. This would also allow Alexander-Walker to remain on a competitive team. Oftentimes, we don't know what teams are interested in signing players until the move happens, and that could be the case with NAW.