The Minnesota Timberwolves made one of the biggest swings of the offseason by trading for LaMelo Ball. In the past two seasons, the Timberwolves have been an underwhelming regular-season team relative to their talent, winning 49 games and finishing as the No. 6 seed in back-to-back seasons.
Once the playoffs rolled around, the Wolves rose to the occasion, making a conference finals run in 2025 and upsetting the Denver Nuggets this past season. Ideally, Ball can help them return to a top-three seed. That would be great, but the bigger picture is that LaMelo boosts their championship equity.
I'm sold on the idea that this move gives them more playoff upside, but honestly, I'm not anticipating a massive regular-season jump -- and that should change how this trade should be judged.
The Timberwolves shouldn't be expected to surge up the standings
The regular season is weird. Oftentimes, there's not a correlation with seeding and playoff success. In fact, each Finals matchup this decade has featured at least one team that wasn't a top-two seed. The margin for error is thin in the regular season. With the NBA's flattened lottery odds, things should be even closer.
One injury could be the difference between you being the three and six seed. Look at the West in the past two seasons. Notably, last season, two games separated the three and five seeds, while the year before, one game separated the three and six seeds. Furthermore, teams that made big moves (like the Wolves did) often take time to mesh.
Last season, the Wolves fought with the Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets for the three through six seeds. I don't envision that changing a ton.
Barring major injury, I still view the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder as the clear top-two seeds. And while I would take the Wolves in a playoff series over all of those teams, I'm not sure there's a wide gap in the regular season.
LaMelo's injury history is a concern, and even if he stays healthy, the Wolves could take some time to mesh despite the clear advantages he provides. Plus, there's the looming power forward concern. The point being there's some level of volatility with this squad.
When it's all said and done, I'd pick the Timberwolves over the other three tier-two West teams. Still, if they finish as the three-seed, I would expect it to be close and the Wolves to win within the low 50s, not much higher. For what it's worth, the Timberwolves over-under is set at a familiar number: 49.5 wins.
The value of this trade will be seen in the playoffs
When Tim Connelly and the Timberwolves made this trade, it wasn't about becoming a top-three seed: it was about making a championship leap. Frankly, there was never a path for the Wolves to definitely establish themselves as a better team than the Spurs or Thunder.
However, the Wolves have the best chance to challenge these two juggernauts. LaMelo gives Anthony Edwards a dependable second option who solves the Timberwolves' needs for secondary creation and playmaking. Additionally, the Wolves' plethora of ball-handlers and shooting gives them a path to offsetting the rim protection advantages of San Antonio and OKC.
All of the projected three through six seeds have clear flaws. For the Timberwolves, it's their forward depth. The Nuggets still struggle defensively. Likewise, the Lakers don't have a clear on-ball stopper. Finally, Houston lacks shooting and rim protection.
Again, the Wolves aren't perfect. Regardless, their flaws are more manageable and fixable in my eyes. The Wolves' high-powered offense, combined with them having an elite rim protector (Rudy Gobert) and point-of-attack stopper (Jaden McDaniels), gives them a championship blueprint.
The Timberwolves have already had a considerable amount of playoff success. Nevertheless, their lack of playmaking and creation alongside Ant routinely hurt them. LaMelo will solve this -- even if he doesn't have any playoff experience, he has the skill set to uplift the Timberwolves in high-leverage moments.
So while I'm not all in on the idea of LaMelo massively boosting the Timberwolves' regular-season record, come playoff time, this trade gives them a stronger chance to make a title run.
All of this is to say, don't panic if the Timberwolves don't skyrocket in the regular season, as Ball's value will truly pay off in the playoffs.
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