While the Minnesota Timberwolves are devoid of draft capital, they have a fantastic 26-and-under core headlined by Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball. Jaden McDaniels, Ayo Dosunmu, Joan Beringer, and Terrence Shannon Jr. further elevate this relatively young nucleus. Despite their lack of draft picks, the Wolves' young talent positions them to compete both now and in the long-term. Ball is an exciting addition to the core given his talent, fit, and age.
There is just one major problem... the second tax apron, which is essentially a hard cap for spending, shrinks their timeline. Relevantly, zero teams are projected to exceed the second apron threshold this upcoming season. As is, the Timberwolves are nearing the second apron for the second straight season.
The trio of Edwards, Ball, and McDaniels will soon all need extensions. Edwards will likely wait until next summer to secure a supermax contract. Ball, if he stays healthy, could feasibly make an All-NBA team and become eligible for a supermax extension. Furthermore, McDaniels is eligible for a two-year, $87 million extension in October.
These big numbers could put the Timberwolves in a tough spot financially, and down the road, it could force them to break up their core. This decision is years away, but this puts the pressure on Minnesota to maximize this core while they can afford to keep it together.
On the bright side, Edwards, Ball, and McDaniels are all locked up on contracts until the summer of 2029. That might seem like a long time from now. However, it gives the Wolves a clear timeline to capitalize on this core: three years.
The second apron will force the Timberwolves to shake up their core in a few years
We've seen teams around the league make financially driven decisions due to the second apron. Most notably, the Boston Celtics nearly completely dismantled a championship-winning core in two summers. Timberwolves fans are also familiar with the second apron (and the difficulties of keeping two supermax players) from the Karl-Anthony Towns trade two years ago.
Even if Ball doesn't earn supermax eligibility, his next contract will likely exceed at least $40 million annually. Which, paired with the possibility of paying McDaniels upwards of $40 million annually and a likely supermax for Ant, will put the Wolves in a really tough spot financially.
The most likely scenario is that three summers from now, the Wolves will be forced to pick between Ball and McDaniels. That will be a brutal choice, especially if McDaniels' offensive game continues to grow.
While I've been discussing the idea of a three-year timeline, the Timberwolves could be proactive and make a move two years from now, depending on how these next couple of seasons play out.
If they are determined to keep Edwards, Ball, and McDaniels, there's a chance that they can sell off role players and prioritize these three players while punting on depth. Still, neither outcome is ideal for a team with championship aspirations, and the Timberwolves' lack of draft capital makes doing this a bit more challenging.
Maybe the Wolves get lucky, and one or multiple of these players will take a hometown discount. Unfortunately, this isn't something you can bank on.
At the end of the day, the second apron will likely force some key changes for the Timberwolves in a few years. As long as they can keep Edwards around, they'll be in a good spot to compete for championships.
However, this core complements Edwards perfectly, and frankly, these next three years might be the Timberwolves' best chance to win a championship with Ant-Man. As such, despite the excitement around the revamped core, Minnesota might have to break through and win a championship fairly soon.
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