Timberwolves must address shocking problem to reach their ceiling

Defense matters folks.
Minnesota TImberwolves v Oklahoma City Thunder
Minnesota TImberwolves v Oklahoma City Thunder | William Purnell/GettyImages

The Minnesota Timberwolves are off to an uneven 13-8 start. Yes, they are on a three-game winning streak, but even during this winning streak, there have been concerning signs. Tuesday night's game against the New Orleans Pelicans resulted in a 149-142 overtime win off the heels of an Anthony Edwards 44-point game. However, the Wolves posted an awful 128.2 defensive rating against a snake-bitten Pelicans team, and they needed Edwards to play every minute of the second half.

All season long, the Wolves have struggled with defensive consistency. Per Cleaning the Glass (which filters out garbage time), the Wolves rank 12th for defensive rating. If this trend holds, it will be the first time the Wolves have had a defense outside of the top 10 in the Rudy Gobert era.

Frankly, it's baffling that the Wolves have struggled defensively, as this has been their identity since trading for Rudy. The question is: whether this is simply an inconsistent start to the season, or a concerning new trend for Minnesota?

The Wolves' defense has been wildly inconsistent

The Wolves' defense has been Jekyll and Hyde. Over the past six games, they ranked 14th in defensive rating. For the first five games of the season, they shockingly ranked 28th. The next 10 games, they posted the fourth-ranked defense, which is in line with what we've seen from them over the past several seasons.

Minnesota has been an elite team in large part due to two-way balance, and the offense is still there as they still rank fifth in ORTG. However, if the Wolves' defense doesn't play at a consistent level, this advantage won't matter.

Another thing that makes the Wolves' defense so confusing is that their defense ranks third in clutch time play and 17th in clutch time offense. In many games, their defense struggles early, but at the end of games, it flips, which is genuinely baffling.

The Wolves' struggles without Rudy and beyond

This group is clearly talented; they ranked sixth in defensive rating last year and first the year before. The non-Rudy minutes have (rightfully) been well-discussed. To drill this point home again, though, Gobert has a minus-20.9 on-off difference swing, which is the highest in the NBA. With him on the court, the Wolves' defense translates to the second-best in the league. But without him, it translates to the worst in the league.

While this is a massive concern, there's a very simple solution. With Jaylen Clark and Jaden McDaniels but without Gobert, the Wolves have a 115.5 defensive rating, which translates to the 14th overall defense. However, this duo has only played in 74 of the Wolves' 626 non-Rudy possessions. The first 20 games have shown us that this duo must play together for the Wolves to maintain a competent defense without Rudy.

Doing this while trying to develop Terrence Shannon Jr. and Rob Dillingham is challenging. Still, TSJ and Dillingham aren't great defenders, so pairing them with Rudy makes sense. Conversely, allowing McDaniels and Clark, who are the team's second and third best defenders, to man the defense without Rudy makes sense.

The Wolves' communication and attentiveness off-ball need to improve. They often mishandle switches and lose sight of cutters.

For the most part, the Wolves are high-level defending on the ball, which in part explains their strong clutch time defense. Regardless, they need to pay closer attention to the nuances off the ball.

During the Gobert minutes, these issues are evident, but he cleans up so many mistakes. When he sits, though, these issues are glaring.

Ultimately, the Wolves' defense is concerning, and if they don't get back on track, I can't view them as contenders. Thankfully, though, these issues are very fixable, and the Wolves have a history of being an elite defense.

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