Some people are writing the Minnesota Timberwolves off ahead of their first-round series against the Denver Nuggets. I understand why the Nuggets are favored, don't get me wrong. However, there are several clear pathways for the Wolves to once again take the NBA world by storm.
A lot of the discourse has (understandably) been around the Wolves being able to match the Nuggets' offensive firepower, especially with their shaky secondary shot creation next to Anthony Edwards. At the same time, finding ways to limit the Nuggets' prolific offense will be vital and, of course, challenging.
The past two playoffs have shown us that you need an elite defense to beat the Nuggets, as they have lost to the league's best defense in back-to-back years. Of course, this includes the 2024 Wolves. Despite having close to the same amount of talent, the Wolves haven't shown that they can reach this level of defense since then, and certainly not this season.
It couldn't be clearer, though: Minnesota needs to reach another gear on defense if they have a shot to upset Denver.
The Timberwolves must play elite defense to pull off an upset
On the season, the Wolves are sixth in defensive rating. Plus, with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, the Wolves have one of the best rim protectors and point-of-attack defenders. Still, if you've watched the Wolves' season, you'd know the defense hasn't looked right.
The intensity levels from Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle haven't been up to par -- an issue that should change in the playoffs.
For as erratic as their defensive consistency has been this season, defense has undeniably been their primary identity since trading for Gobert in 2022, and they must re-establish this identity to beat Denver.
Minnesota's stifling on-ball defense from their 2024 meeting with the Nuggets should be seared into everybody's mind, and this is exactly what they'll need to channel again to make Denver uncomfortable. If Ant is healthy, there's no reason he can't flip this switch. This, paired with McDaniels and Ayo Dosunmu, gives the Wolves' perimeter defense a pathway to be highly disruptive.
Limiting Jamal Murray and the Nuggets' 3-point shooting with this style of defense doesn't feel out of the question.
The much harder part of the equation is stopping Nikola Jokic (and the Jokic-Murray two-man game).
I would expect the Wolves to give Jokic plenty of different looks. Gobert will guard him one-on-one at times, and I'm sure the Wolves will also throw Randle on him and have Gobert roam. While Jokic is a generational playmaker, they'll surely have to throw double teams at him as well. Other things to consider are Kyle Anderson defending Jokic, and even smaller defenders like Ayo and Ant getting some reps on him.
Who knows if any of this will actually work. Regardless, if the Wolves have any shot of beating the Nuggets, their defense needs to be on point. Even if you make a minor mistake, Jokic can destroy you. It will be a tough task, but if the Wolves can find a way to make Jokic (and the Nuggets' perimeter threats) uncomfortable, the Wolves could pull off an upset.
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