For most of his tenure with the Minnesota Timberwolves (2023-24 is the one exception), their offense has been much worse with Rudy Gobert on the floor, while their defense has been much better with him on the floor. The eye test backs up the numbers: Gobert is simultaneously crucial to the Wolves' defense and a major weak link of their offense. I and others have called this the Rudy Gobert paradox.
And this paradox has been in full effect 11 games into the season. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Timberwolves' defense has been 17.7 points per 100 possessions better with Gobert on the court, while their offense has been 8.5 points per 100 possessions worse with Gobert on the court.
Most of the dialogue around Gobert's season has been about his ineffectiveness on offense. On some level, this is fair: Gobert's 7.8 points while shooting 50 percent from the field—both marks are the lowest since his rookie season. Of course, some of Gobert's finishing around the rim and frequent dropped passes have been incredibly frustrating and detrimental to the Wolves' offense.
At the same time, Gobert's defense has been as elite as ever. The Wolves rank first in defensive rating, and that's a testament to Gobert's ability to anchor a defense. He deters shots around the rim at a historic rate, and in turn, makes life easier for the rest of his team. The Timberwolves wouldn't be 8-3 without him, nor would they have a shot at winning the title. But can they win at the highest level despite his offensive deficiencies?
Rudy Gobert's defense is vital to the Timberwolves' success
Let's start off with the positive: Gobert is the main reason why the Wolves have the league's best defense. Yes, Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga are great, but Gobert is the heartbeat of their defense. In addition to the stellar raw on/off splits, 14.3 percent fewer of opposing teams' shots come at the rim when Gobert is on the floor. A number that ranks in the 100th percentile. Statistically, Gobert has been a better rim deterrent than Victor Wembanyama.
Gobert's presence at the rim erases his teammates' mistakes and allows them to play a super aggressive style of defense. Furthermore, Gobert's on-ball defense is stellar. We are talking about a guy who single-handedly limited Nikola Jokic in the playoffs last season.
This season, Gobert is holding opponents to 38.4 percent shooting as the primary defender, and 48.8 percent shooting at the rim. Having a player who can impact the mindset of opposing players and limit star big men is a massive advantage in a playoff setting. He can limit the impact of stars like Jokic, Wembanyama, or Alperen Sengun. Moreover, he can shut down perimeter-based attacks.
For all the talk about their revamped offense, the Wolves' defense has been central to their identity. If they win the championship, their defense will be the center of their success, and Gobert will play a huge role.
In the unfortunate event that Gobert gets injured, it would be tough sledding for the Timberwolves. Joan Beringer and Trey Lyles are the only other big men on standard contracts. Their defense would collapse, and they wouldn't be a title-contending squad. Simply put, he's essential to their success.
Gobert's offense may prevent the Wolves from reaching their title hopes
Despite all of his defensive brilliance, the question remains: Can you win a championship with Gobert's offensive limitations? Truthfully, this is my number one concern with the Wolves' title hopes. This team is borderline flawless, but Gobert's subpar offense is a crack in their armor, and this problem has been on display early in the regular season.
Maybe he's simply off to a slow start, but as we established earlier, Gobert's offense has never been worse, and teams have already been exposing his offensive limitations. His games against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors two weeks ago are prime examples of this, as he shot 0-for-13 in those two games combined. At 34, he might simply be declining.
Gobert's touch around the basket is incredibly poor. He struggles to finish with physicality, often opting to take awkward layups instead. And while he is a serviceable lob threat, his tendency to drop passes is a problem.
The Wolves have a fantastic offense, but Gobert is a clear weakness. In a playoff setting, it takes just one weak link for things to crumble. Without a doubt, teams will look to expose Gobert. He has routinely struggled against teams with elite protection, as these teams are better equipped to expose this flaw. In a conference where the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are the standard, that's a concern. It's not a coincidence that he's struggled against these two teams in the past two playoffs.
All of this is to say that if the Timberwolves make a championship run, Gobert's defense will be one of the main reasons why, but his offensive limitations could also be one of the main reasons why they don't reach their championship aspirations. That's quite the paradox, isn't it?
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