The Minnesota Timberwolves have now won five playoff series in the past three seasons. They've beaten the Denver Nuggets (twice now), the Phoenix Suns, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Golden State Warriors. On the flip side, Minnesota has lost to the Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder in back-to-back conference finals.
Do you notice a trend? The teams that they've beaten all have had subpar rim protection, while the teams they've lost to all have had high-quality rim protection.
Just last series, we saw the Wolves expose the Nuggets' lack of rim protection. However, the Victor Wembanyama-led San Antonio Spurs will provide the Wolves with a massive challenge. As noted, the Wolves struggled against the Mavs and Thunder in the past two conference finals.
While OKC is an all-time great defense, and the Mavs had plenty of quality rim protection, Wemby is simply a different monster. This season, he became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in league history. Wemby's mere presence shuts down driving lanes and makes scoring at the rim nearly impossible.
Given that the Wolves have already struggled against good protection, reversing this trend against Wemby will be the ultimate challenge.
The Spurs' rim protection will be a massive challenge for the Timberwolves
In the first-round, the Wolves recorded 32 attempts within five feet of the basket and made 67.7 percent of these shots. Conversely, the Portland Trail Blazers shot just 56.4 percent on shots within five feet of the basket.
Coming off a series where they shot just 33.7 percent from 3-point land, it's worth wondering whether the Wolves will have enough shooting juice to overcome the Spurs' exceptional rim protection. This is especially the case with Donte DiVincenzo out. Anthony Edwards could be back as soon as Game 1, which would provide a massive boon to the team's 3-point shooting.
Even still, elite rim protection creates massive challenges for Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, and Jaden McDaniels.
Of this group, McDaniels has shown the most signs of perimeter scoring. While he had a down 3-point shooting series against Denver, he netted 41.2 percent of his 3s in the regular season and has become a mid-range assassin this season.
Randle's ability to score outside of punishing mismatches around the rim will be key in this series. Gobert has offensive limitations, and it's fair to wonder if Wemby's presence will bring this flaw to light.
The Spurs are a difficult matchup for any team, but recent history shows that they are especially a brutal matchup for the Timberwolves. If they can pull off an upset, the Wolves must either knock down their 3s or somehow find a way to score at the rim despite going up against a 7-foot-4 alien.
It will be an uphill battle, to say the least, but the Timberwolves have proven that you can never write them off.
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