Wolves' best path to making another conference finals run might feel counterproductive

After two straight conference finals runs, the Minnesota Timberwolves are trying to break through and win a championship. Doing so in a loaded Western Conference was always going to be a difficult task.

With the regular season winding down, the Timberwolves are in a jumbled race for the No. 3 through 6 seeds. However, as the Wolves are now three games behind the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota now has a 97 percent chance to fall between the No. 4 and 6 seeds.

This might sound counterproductive, but landing the No. 6 seed for the second straight year might be the best outcome for the Timberwolves. The main reason is that Minnesota would avoid playing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round (assuming they maintain the No. 1 seed). 

Undoubtedly, the San Antonio Spurs pose a difficult matchup in their own right, but beating an inexperienced Spurs' squad is inherently easier than beating the defending champs. 

The Timberwolves' best chance to return to the conference finals is to get the No. 6 seed

I'm never an advocate of seed jockeying in the final stretch of the regular season, and frankly, I doubt the Timberwolves would be either. Nevertheless, my point is that if the Wolves do finish as the No. 6 seed, it would actually be the best realistic outcome for them.

All Wolves fans would love to see a first round matchup with the Houston Rockets, but the reality is that it's increasingly unlikely. The Wolves finishing as a No. 6 seed would likely set up a first round rematch with the Lakers. 

This series wouldn't be a cakewalk, especially as the Lakers have been surging lately. Regardless, the Wolves can expose the Lakers' defensive weak points (especially given their lack of a natural matchup for Anthony Edwards) and are well-positioned to make life difficult for Luka Doncic. 

A matchup with the Denver Nuggets would be the worst-case scenario, albeit it would be far from impossible. 

Thus, even if Wolves finish as the No. 6 seed, I feel comfortable saying that they'd be able to win their first round matchup.

The bigger picture, though, is avoiding a matchup with the Thunder. Sure, Minnesota split the season series with OKC. However, the Thunder's stifling defense, experience, and size make them a brutal matchup for the Wolves. Last year's Western Conference finals should serve as a reminder of this. 

Without a doubt, the Spurs have plenty of ways to make life difficult for the Wolves. Much like OKC, San Antonio has an exceptional all-around defense, an elite backcourt, and they have the ultimate cheat code with Victor Wembanyama.

Nevertheless, upsetting a team with so little playoff experience is easier than taking down the defending champs. Furthermore, the Thunder's defense focuses on forcing turnovers more than the Spurs does -- for a turnover-prone Wolves squad, this makes OKC a tougher matchup. 

All in all, no seed would guarantee another conference finals run for the Wolves, but the No. 6 seed gives them the best chance.