Last June, the Minnesota Timberwolves opted to re-sign Naz Reid and Julius Randle while letting Nickeil Alexander-Walker leave in free agency for the Atlanta Hawks. At the time, this seemed logical, as the Wolves couldn't afford all three players, and seemingly had more natural replacements for NAW. However, this decision backfired as Alexander-Walker blossomed into a 20-point game scorer and a Most Improved Player candidate.
While Alexander-Walker flourished in Atlanta, the Wolves' replacements struggled, and their bench production proved to be a massive flaw. This ultimately led Tim Connelly to trade for Ayo Dosunmu at the deadline. Ayo and NAW aren't the exact same player, but there's no denying they have similar roles and skill sets. Likewise, Dosunmu has proven to be an essential part of the Wolves' success and future.
At the surface level, Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller, and four second-round picks weren't a massive investment. Nevertheless, this summer, the Wolves will have to sign Dosunmu to a new contract, which will be of similar value to NAW's deal. It's possible that Ayo's contract exceeds what they would have to pay for Alexander-Walker.
In turn, the Wolves will (likely) have to make cost-cutting moves, whether that be trading one of the big men or a consolidation trade.
Re-signing Dosunmu will likely trigger some roster moves for the Wolves
According to CapSheets.com, the Wolves are projected to have $26.6 million in second apron cap room before re-signing Dosunmu. Now, Ayo won't take up all of this space. The ideal outcome is that he signs a three-year, $52.4 million extension before free agency. Still, he might wait until free agency and force Minnesota to pay him more. Even the $52 million extension would be more than the annual cost of retaining Alexander-Walker.
For argument's sake, let's say the Wolves re-sign Dosunmu to this number. Subsequently, they will have to sign at least three more players to a total of less than $9.3 million. Retaining Kyle Anderson and Bones Hyland would be logical.
Sure, I suppose the Wolves could accomplish this goal and opt to "run it back" and/or dip into the second apron. Nonetheless, the easiest path to retaining Dosunmu and a quality bench would be to make a cap-friendly trade. Between the offensive limitations of Gobert and the defensive limitations of Randle and Reid, the Wolves' frontcourt pairing seems flawed. If this frontcourt trio underwhelms in the playoffs, changes feel inevitable.
Furthermore, the Wolves likely want to unleash rookie big man Joan Beringer next season, which is impossible with how the roster is constructed.
Given that they don't align with Anthony Edwards' timeline as much, Randle and Gobert are the most likely trade candidates. I wouldn't be shocked if the Wolves package Donte DiVincenzo with one of these two players since he needs a contract extension.
Can the Wolves fetch a trade return that improves their roster and saves cap space remains the biggest question.
In any event, if the Wolves do trade one of their big man (in large part to bring back Ayo), last summer's decision to keep all three big men and let Alexander-Walker depart will linger in their mind.