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NBA Draft: Should the Minnesota Timberwolves trade down?

By Ben Beecken

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - APRIL 23: Tom Thibodeau of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - APRIL 23: Tom Thibodeau of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Minnesota Timberwolves hold the No. 20 pick in the NBA Draft on June 21. Given their salary cap situation and the prospects that should be available at the Wolves’ pick, should they consider trading down?

We’ve spent plenty of time reviewing individual draft prospects for the Minnesota Timberwolves here at Dunking With Wolves, and one thing is clear: there are a number of wing prospects within the same draft tier, and the Wolves may have a tough decision to make at No. 20.

That means that the best possible value may be in trading back in the draft and picking up an asset in the process, all while saving a bit of money as they gear up to extend Karl-Anthony Towns and, hopefully, Jimmy Butler.

Before we get to the individual prospects, let’s acknowledge that in a draft that seems to be fairly balanced throughout the first round, it may be tough to find multiple front offices that would be willing to pony up for the No. 20 pick.

To be clear, the Wolves will likely reap more value from the selection — or, one later in the first round — than they would in trading it straight-up for an established veteran player.

The history of one-for-one trades involving first-round draft picks and players already in the NBA isn’t extraordinarily enticing; in the Timberwolves’ own history there is the trade of the No. 18 pick in the 2012 draft that netted Chase Budinger. Every year is different, of course, and the value of exact selections, despite what tools like the widely-accepted NFL Draft Value Chart might want us to believe.

Just last summer, we saw the Denver Nuggets swap the No. 13 pick, which became Rookie of the Year runner-up Donovan Mitchell, to the Utah Jazz for Trey Lyles and the No. 24 pick. This is obviously an example of a trade-back that doesn’t appear as though it will work out in Nuggets’ favor, even though they picked up an extra asset.

Here are the players that we’ve profiled thus far here at Dunking With Wolves:

Of that list, only Lonnie Walker and Zhaire Smith are regularly mocked above No. 20. Players like Chandler Hutchison, Kevin Huerter, and Donte DiVincenzo are slotted anywhere from the mid-teens through the mid-20s depending on which mock draft you’re looking at.

Several of the remainder of the above prospects are typically thought of to be very late first-round picks or early second-rounders, and a trade-back may be the best move for Minnesota to get one of these wings as well as pick up another asset and save some money.

To be clear, this isn’t a David Kahn circa 2011 trade-back to pocket a few million for buyouts, etc. This would be a legitimate maneuver to save value room for what is supposed to be contending team.

The 2018 cap hit for the No. 20 selection that the Timberwolves currently possess is $1.895 million. Trading back to, say, the Lakers’ No. 25 pick would net the Wolves almost exactly $350k. Not a ton of cash, of course, but a bit of breathing room that could be valuable. If they wanted to trade out of the first round entirely and save themselves from handing out a guaranteed contract, they could save even more.

Of course, none of this matters if a) the Wolves fall in love with a prospect and stand pat or even try to trade up, b) there are no willing trade partners at No. 20, or c) if there are only one or two wing prospects still on the board and the more prudent move is to simply make their own pick. The best-case scenario is that several of the above names remain on the board and the Wolves can safely trade back a few picks, content to take one of a number of wing players.

We’ll take a closer look at this as the mock drafts become a little more set in the coming days. There’s always a few players with rumored promises and so forth, and we should have a better idea where everyone stands in about a week.

Next: The Timberwolves have an Andrew Wiggins problem

All things considered, trading down should definitely be on the table for the Timberwolves.