When the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets faced off in the playoffs two years ago, Denver's lack of 3-point shooting was a real concern. In the 2023-24 season, the Nuggets ranked 25th in 3-pointers made and dead last in 3-pointers attempted.
The numbers of the 2024 series don't tell the full story, as the Wolves only narrowly outshot the Nuggets en route to an upset. However, the Nuggets' poor 3-point shooting and limited volume allowed the Wolves to sag off their shooters, which in turn made Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray more uncomfortable.
Now, though the Wolves can't employ this same strategy, as the Nuggets rank 11th in 3-pointers made and 20th in 3-pointers attempted -- Denver also now leads the league in 3-point percentage. Limiting the Nuggets' high-powered offense was already a difficult task, and it's gotten even harder since the last time these teams met.
The Nuggets' 3-point shooting makes things even more difficult for the Wolves
The Nuggets' improved 3-point shooting limits how much the Wolves can double Jokic. To be clear, I'm sure we'll see it a bit.
However, two years ago, we saw Karl-Anthony Towns used as the primary defender on Jokic, with Rudy Gobert roaming and doubling Jokic. The Wolves could try this again, with Julius Randle in place of Towns, but the Nuggets' improved shooting could make them pay for this strategy even if Randle plays great defense.
One of the biggest individual changes from two years ago is that Aaron Gordon (who Gobert was mainly sagging off two years ago) has transformed from a 29 percent 3-point shooter to a 38.9 percent 3-point shooter. Christian Braun (30.1 percent) is one player whom the Timberwolves can sag off of. However, if his shooting is costing the Nuggets, they can replace him with one of Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson, or Bruce Brown.
It will be understandable if the Wolves commit to the "anybody but Jokic" strategy at least to start of the series. Still, if the Nuggets make them pay for this, the Wolves will have to switch things up and guard him one-on-one. Jokic can have his way with Gobert, Randle, or anyone else the Wolves throw at him, though.
On the other side of the ball, the Wolves will have to shoot efficiently to keep up with the Nuggets' shooting.
Limiting Jokic and the Nuggets feels like a near impossibility with their improved shooting, and Chris Finch will undoubtedly have to have some curveballs that I'm not expecting. Needless to say, the Wolves will have their hands full in this series.
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